MODEL VERDICT
TG Therapeutics, Inc. (TGTX) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $30.09 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $29.53 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $28.50 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $29.14 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $28.47 | Below threshold | +3.9% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 57 analyst estimates | $39.67 | +31.8% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 47 industry peers | $10.19 | -66.1% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 48 industry peers | $3.16 | -89.5% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 46 industry peers | $5.16 | -82.9% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV To Revenue 130 industry peers | $25.67 | -14.7% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 130 industry peers | $26.02 | -13.5% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 47 industry peers | $3.56 | -88.2% | 2% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $456.35 | +1416.6% | 100% | 70 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 169× | 185× | 201× (Current) | 217× | 233× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $26 | $29 | $31 | $34 | $36 |
| Conservative (7%) | $27 | $30 | $32 | $35 | $37 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $28 | $31 | $33 | $36 | $38 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $29 | $31 | $34 | $37 | $40 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/TBV | 18.11 | 15.88 | 10.63 | 27.72 | 6.99 |
| P/B Ratio | 17.90 | 15.80 | 10.59 | 27.34 | 6.87 |
| P/S Ratio | 6990.94 | 575.19 | 10.86 | 39471.44 | 14503.69 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 16 valuation metrics, the model estimates TGTX's fair value at $456.35 vs the current price of $30.09, implying +1416.6% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 70/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $456.35 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $14.66 (P10) to $1370.06 (P90), with a median of $383.59.
TGTX's current P/E of 200.6x compares to the industry median of 21.0x (48 peers in the group). This represents a +853.0% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: High Premium.
13 analysts cover TGTX with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $49.50 (range: $39.00 — $60.00), implying +64.5% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (11), Hold (1), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 70/100, based on: data completeness (18), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for TGTX.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.