MODEL VERDICT
Nu Holdings Ltd. (NU)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.18 | $14.44 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $14.51 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $15.34 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $15.34 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.17 | $14.96 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 11 industry peers | $8.06 | -44.2% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 12 industry peers | $5.33 | -63.1% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 10 bank peers | $7.13 | -50.6% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Earnings Yield 12 industry peers | $9.64 | -33.2% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 12 analyst estimates | $16.25 | +12.5% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $8.97 | -37.9% | 100% | 71 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 30× | 33× | 36× (Current) | 39× | 42× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $12 | $14 | $15 | $16 | $17 |
| Conservative (7%) | $13 | $14 | $15 | $17 | $18 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $13 | $15 | $16 | $17 | $18 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $14 | $15 | $16 | $18 | $19 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA | 10.40 | 13.19 | 0.37 | 17.64 | 8.97 |
| P/FCF | 29.87 | 29.68 | 22.77 | 37.15 | 7.19 |
| P/FFO | 20.75 | 24.72 | 0.54 | 37.01 | 18.55 |
| P/TBV | 7.44 | 7.22 | 4.42 | 10.90 | 2.66 |
| P/AFFO | 21.01 | 24.78 | 0.54 | 37.70 | 18.87 |
| P/B Ratio | 6.64 | 6.47 | 3.89 | 9.73 | 2.40 |
| P/S Ratio | 10.66 | 4.92 | 4.21 | 28.59 | 11.96 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 13 valuation metrics, the model estimates NU's fair value at $8.97 vs the current price of $14.44, implying -37.9% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 71/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $8.97 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $6.85 (P10) to $11.88 (P90), with a median of $9.24.
NU's current P/E of 36.1x compares to the industry median of 20.2x (11 peers in the group). This represents a +79.1% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: High Premium.
22 analysts cover NU with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $20.48 (range: $18.40 — $22.00), implying +41.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (14), Hold (7), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 71/100, based on: data completeness (24), peer quality (25), historical depth (10), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for NU.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.