MODEL VERDICT
NWPX Infrastructure, Inc. (NWPX)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $107.00 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $84.78 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $81.65 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $83.84 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $84.28 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 6 analyst estimates | $62.62 | -41.5% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 5 industry peers | $70.56 | -34.1% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 5 industry peers | $66.69 | -37.7% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 6 industry peers | $56.36 | -47.3% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 5 industry peers | $60.60 | -43.4% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 6 industry peers | $76.43 | -28.6% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 5 industry peers | $109.22 | +2.1% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 6 industry peers | $50.56 | -52.7% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 6 industry peers | $44.71 | -58.2% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 5 industry peers | $64.70 | -39.5% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 6 industry peers | $51.18 | -52.2% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $68.21 | -36.3% | 100% | 93 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 26× | 28× | 30× (Current) | 32× | 34× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (5%) | $97 | $105 | $112 | $120 | $127 |
| Conservative (9%) | $100 | $108 | $116 | $124 | $131 |
| Base Case (13.0%) | $105 | $113 | $121 | $129 | $137 |
| Bull Case (18%) | $109 | $117 | $126 | $134 | $142 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 15.83 | 14.48 | 10.84 | 27.41 | 5.55 |
| EV/EBIT | 14.79 | 12.86 | 9.15 | 30.85 | 7.32 |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.85 | 9.34 | 8.44 | 17.02 | 3.51 |
| P/FCF | 10.45 | 9.50 | 6.69 | 14.18 | 3.15 |
| P/FFO | 9.23 | 8.32 | 6.99 | 12.55 | 1.99 |
| P/TBV | 1.50 | 1.48 | 1.18 | 1.96 | 0.29 |
| P/AFFO | 16.28 | 14.96 | 10.17 | 26.56 | 5.14 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.18 | 1.11 | 0.90 | 1.57 | 0.23 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.95 | 0.98 | 0.69 | 1.18 | 0.19 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates NWPX's fair value at $68.21 vs the current price of $107.00, implying -36.3% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 93/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $68.21 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $56.54 (P10) to $69.49 (P90), with a median of $62.95.
NWPX's current P/E of 30.1x compares to the industry median of 18.7x (5 peers in the group). This represents a +60.4% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 15.8x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
6 analysts cover NWPX with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $60.00 (range: $50.00 — $70.00), implying -43.9% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (2), Hold (4), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 93/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: NWPX trades at the 6000th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (15.8×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that NWPX's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.8σ, meaning margins are 0.8 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (8.9%), the model estimates fair value drops by 3840.0% to approximately $66. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.