MODEL VERDICT
Grupo Televisa, S.A.B. (TV)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $2.90 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $3.08 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $3.28 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $3.12 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $2.98 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA 10 industry peers | $229.32 | +7807.6% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Dividend Yield 5 industry peers | $117.03 | +3935.5% | 18% | B | Supplementary |
| Forward P/E 9 analyst estimates | $38.31 | +1221.0% | 12% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 11 industry peers | $147.63 | +4990.7% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 9 industry peers | $24.35 | +739.7% | 7% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV To Revenue 11 industry peers | $156.39 | +5292.8% | 4% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $104.00 | +3486.3% | 100% | 70 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBIT | 27.21 | 12.49 | 0.95 | 97.56 | 39.93 |
| EV/EBITDA | 2.72 | 2.79 | 0.34 | 3.87 | 1.17 |
| P/FCF | 0.52 | 0.36 | 0.04 | 1.33 | 0.53 |
| P/FFO | 0.16 | 0.16 | 0.04 | 0.26 | 0.08 |
| P/TBV | 0.34 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 2.13 | 0.79 |
| P/AFFO | 1.13 | 0.98 | 0.12 | 2.44 | 1.07 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.20 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 1.20 | 0.44 |
| Div Yield | 0.52 | 0.47 | 0.16 | 1.11 | 0.37 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.01 | 0.08 | 0.02 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 15 valuation metrics, the model estimates TV's fair value at $104.00 vs the current price of $2.90, implying +3486.3% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 70/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $104.00 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $71.76 (P10) to $122.86 (P90), with a median of $95.23.
TV's current P/E of -2.7x compares to the industry median of 14.0x (8 peers in the group). This represents a -119.2% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
16 analysts cover TV with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $6.50 (range: $3.00 — $10.00), implying +124.1% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (6), Hold (7), Sell (3), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 70/100, based on: data completeness (18), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for TV.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.