MODEL VERDICT
W. P. Carey Inc. (WPC)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $72.60 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $73.12 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $73.98 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $71.58 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $71.62 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price / FFO 9 REIT peers | $69.24 | -4.6% | 30% | A | REIT Primary |
| Price / AFFO 2 REIT peers | $43.59 | -40.0% | 20% | A | REIT Primary |
| EV/EBITDA 9 industry peers | $66.54 | -8.3% | 15% | A- | Peer Data |
| Dividend Yield 7 industry peers | $66.61 | -8.3% | 12% | B | Supplementary |
| Price / Book 9 industry peers | $52.93 | -27.1% | 8% | B | Model Driven |
| Industry Median P/E 8 industry peers | $51.64 | -28.9% | 5% | A | Peer Data |
| Forward P/E 9 analyst estimates | $60.51 | -16.7% | 5% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV To Revenue 9 industry peers | $83.58 | +15.1% | 3% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $81.77 | +12.6% | 2% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $57.86 | -20.3% | 100% | 93 | OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 28× | 31× | 34× (Current) | 37× | 40× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $60 | $67 | $73 | $80 | $86 |
| Conservative (5%) | $62 | $69 | $75 | $82 | $89 |
| Base Case (-4.1%) | $57 | $63 | $69 | $75 | $81 |
| Bull Case (-6%) | $56 | $62 | $68 | $74 | $80 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 29.77 | 26.58 | 19.76 | 44.02 | 7.98 |
| EV/EBIT | 30.75 | 31.59 | 24.54 | 35.01 | 4.42 |
| EV/EBITDA | 12.71 | 12.28 | 10.43 | 17.75 | 2.43 |
| P/FCF | 15.86 | 17.06 | 7.08 | 20.76 | 4.78 |
| P/FFO | 13.46 | 13.20 | 10.63 | 15.79 | 1.83 |
| P/TBV | 2.61 | 2.90 | 1.92 | 3.28 | 0.55 |
| P/AFFO | 15.91 | 15.96 | 11.71 | 19.61 | 2.64 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.73 | 1.75 | 1.42 | 1.94 | 0.18 |
| Div Yield | 0.06 | 0.06 | 0.05 | 0.07 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 9.63 | 10.32 | 7.62 | 11.65 | 1.61 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates WPC's fair value at $57.86 vs the current price of $72.60, implying -20.3% downside potential. Model verdict: Overvalued. Confidence: 93/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $57.86 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $56.79 (P10) to $63.95 (P90), with a median of $60.26.
WPC's current P/E of 34.4x compares to the industry median of 24.5x (8 peers in the group). This represents a +40.6% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 29.8x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
20 analysts cover WPC with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $73.20 (range: $72.00 — $75.00), implying +0.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (7), Hold (10), Sell (3), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 93/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: WPC trades at the 7690th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (29.8×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that WPC's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -1.1σ, meaning margins are 1.1 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (33.5%), the model estimates fair value drops by 1130.0% to approximately $81. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.