MODEL VERDICT
Zillow Group, Inc. Class C (Z)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.18 | $45.28 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $45.41 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $46.86 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.20 | $43.50 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.18 | $40.60 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 5 analyst estimates | $56.82 | +25.5% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Industry Median P/E 2 industry peers | $2.96 | -93.5% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 4 industry peers | $12.17 | -73.1% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 4 industry peers | $16.74 | -63.0% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 7 industry peers | $16.92 | -62.6% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 7 industry peers | $7.80 | -82.8% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 3 industry peers | $2.47 | -94.5% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 5 industry peers | $13.85 | -69.4% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $37.53 | -17.1% | 100% | 70 | OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 423× | 463× | 503× (Current) | 543× | 583× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $40 | $43 | $47 | $51 | $55 |
| Conservative (7%) | $41 | $44 | $48 | $52 | $56 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $42 | $46 | $50 | $54 | $58 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $43 | $47 | $51 | $55 | $60 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA | 143.30 | 107.60 | 38.90 | 319.08 | 122.07 |
| P/FCF | 59.98 | 71.51 | 1.79 | 92.04 | 34.42 |
| P/FFO | 110.53 | 112.17 | 58.77 | 159.00 | 42.41 |
| P/TBV | 8.68 | 9.73 | 3.99 | 11.54 | 2.98 |
| P/B Ratio | 3.39 | 2.99 | 1.74 | 6.13 | 1.35 |
| P/S Ratio | 7.75 | 6.95 | 3.46 | 17.89 | 4.78 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 19 valuation metrics, the model estimates Z's fair value at $37.53 vs the current price of $45.28, implying -17.1% downside potential. Model verdict: Overvalued. Confidence: 70/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $37.53 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $25.75 (P10) to $49.42 (P90), with a median of $37.49.
Z's current P/E of 503.1x compares to the industry median of 32.8x (2 peers in the group). This represents a +1432.0% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: High Premium.
46 analysts cover Z with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $80.00 (range: $80.00 — $80.00), implying +76.7% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (21), Hold (23), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 70/100, based on: data completeness (18), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for Z.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.