MODEL VERDICT
Zillow Group, Inc. Class C (Z) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.18 | $44.62 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.18 | $45.46 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.18 | $43.45 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.17 | $54.71 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $68.75 | Below threshold | -21.1% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 29 analyst estimates | $25.19 | -43.5% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Industry Median P/E 19 industry peers | $1.60 | -96.4% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 27 industry peers | $10.26 | -77.0% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 27 industry peers | $11.17 | -75.0% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 34 industry peers | $25.77 | -42.2% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 34 industry peers | $25.08 | -43.8% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 23 industry peers | $1.91 | -95.7% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 27 industry peers | $10.26 | -77.0% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $20.29 | -54.5% | 100% | 70 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 416× | 456× | 496× (Current) | 536× | 576× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $39 | $43 | $46 | $50 | $54 |
| Conservative (7%) | $40 | $44 | $48 | $51 | $55 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $41 | $45 | $49 | $53 | $57 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $42 | $47 | $51 | $55 | $59 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA | 143.30 | 107.60 | 38.90 | 319.08 | 122.07 |
| P/FCF | 59.98 | 71.51 | 1.79 | 92.04 | 34.42 |
| P/FFO | 110.53 | 112.17 | 58.77 | 159.00 | 42.41 |
| P/TBV | 8.68 | 9.73 | 3.99 | 11.54 | 2.98 |
| P/B Ratio | 3.39 | 2.99 | 1.74 | 6.13 | 1.35 |
| P/S Ratio | 7.75 | 6.95 | 3.46 | 17.89 | 4.78 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 19 valuation metrics, the model estimates Z's fair value at $20.29 vs the current price of $44.62, implying -54.5% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 70/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $20.29 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $15.62 (P10) to $36.28 (P90), with a median of $25.54.
Z's current P/E of 495.8x compares to the industry median of 17.8x (19 peers in the group). This represents a +2681.8% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: High Premium.
46 analysts cover Z with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $85.00 (range: $80.00 — $90.00), implying +90.5% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (21), Hold (23), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 70/100, based on: data completeness (18), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for Z.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.