Consumer cyclicals in 2026 balance resilient spending against tighter financing. Strong labor markets support demand, but weak affordability and trade-down behavior pressure parts of retail, autos, and housing.
Sector AnalysisETF: XLYUpdated May 6, 2026
Consumer Cyclical Sector Stocks
Consumer Cyclical covers businesses tied to discretionary spending — retailers, automakers, hotels, restaurants, leisure, apparel, and housing-related names. The sector outperforms when employment and confidence are strong, but weakens fast when spending slows. XLY is the main benchmark. Screening helps separate durable franchises from highly cyclical demand stories.
Research ByVCP Scanner Editorial Team
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| Ticker | Company | Price | Mkt Cap | P/E | ROE | Div Yield | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amazon.com, Inc. | $273.52 | $2.94T | 38.1 | 22.3% | — | ||
| Tesla, Inc. | $389.30 | $1.46T | 360.5 | 4.8% | — | ||
| Alibaba Group Holding Limited | $132.23 | $319.3B | 16.8 | 11.8% | 1.3% | ||
| The Home Depot, Inc. | $315.22 | $313.33B | 22.2 | 145.5% | 2.9% | ||
| Toyota Motor Corporation | $189.99 | $247.62B | 8.3 | 13.2% | 2.9% | ||
| McDonald's Corporation | $285.17 | $203.09B | 25.0 | — | 2.4% | ||
| The TJX Companies, Inc. | $154.96 | $172.01B | 31.8 | 59.1% | 1.1% | ||
| PDD Holdings Inc. | $96.75 | $143.11B | 8.7 | 44.9% | — | ||
| Booking Holdings Inc. | $167.63 | $129.89B | 25.3 | — | 0.9% | ||
| Lowe's Companies, Inc. | $225.24 | $126.13B | 19.0 | — | 2.1% | ||
| Starbucks Corporation | $104.94 | $119.6B | 64.4 | — | 2.3% | ||
| Marriott International, Inc. | $354.52 | $93.94B | 37.4 | — | 0.8% | ||
| MercadoLibre, Inc. | $1816.80 | $92.11B | 46.1 | 36% | — | ||
| Airbnb, Inc. | $139.73 | $84.96B | 34.7 | 30.2% | — | ||
| Carvana Co. | $379.09 | $82.19B | 44.9 | 50.4% | — | ||
| O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. | $95.00 | $79.49B | 32.0 | — | — | ||
| Ross Stores, Inc. | $227.42 | $74.78B | 34.4 | 35.8% | 0.7% | ||
| Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. | $263.98 | $71.41B | 16.9 | 47.5% | 0.4% | ||
| Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. | $312.77 | $71.2B | 51.1 | — | 0.2% | ||
| General Motors Company | $76.15 | $68.66B | 23.3 | 4.2% | 0.9% | ||
| AutoZone, Inc. | $3540.92 | $58.73B | 24.4 | — | — | ||
| Ferrari N.V. | $325.44 | $57.69B | 31.1 | 42.8% | 2.1% | ||
| NIKE, Inc. | $43.06 | $51.28B | 19.9 | 23.3% | 3.6% | ||
| Sea Limited | $84.48 | $51.09B | 115.7 | 5.9% | — | ||
| Ralph Lauren Corporation | $360.02 | $48.75B | 31.0 | 29.5% | 0.9% | ||
| eBay Inc. | $105.27 | $48.11B | 24.3 | 41.6% | 1.1% | ||
| Ford Motor Company | $11.69 | $45.79B | -5.7 | -20.2% | 6.4% | ||
| JD.com, Inc. | $29.68 | $45.65B | 7.5 | 13.6% | 2.7% | ||
| Yum! Brands, Inc. | $153.89 | $42.54B | 27.7 | — | 1.8% | ||
| D.R. Horton, Inc. | $146.47 | $42.43B | 12.7 | 14.2% | 1.1% |
Market Comparison
Consumer Cyclical Sector vs S&P 500 in one glance
This should answer the only question that matters here: are you getting something better than the market for the price you are paying?
Price vs market
Pricier
14% above S&P 500 trailing P/E
Quality vs market
Lower quality
Net margin 10.4% vs 24.3%; ROE 25.3% vs 44.1%
Income vs market
Lower yield
Sector yield 0.60% vs 0.99%
Comparison table
Winner should register in under three seconds.
| Metric | Consumer Cyclical Sector | S&P 500 | Delta | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Trailing P/E Market is cheaper | 38.3x | 33.6x | +14% | S&P 500 cheaper |
Forward P/E Market is cheaper | 30.8x | 24.4x | +26% | S&P 500 cheaper |
EV/EBITDA Close to market | 21.4x | 22.0x | -3% | Near parity |
Net Margin Market is stronger | 10.4% | 24.3% | -57% | S&P 500 stronger |
ROE Market is stronger | 25.3% | 44.1% | -43% | S&P 500 stronger |
Dividend Yield Market is stronger | 0.6% | 1.0% | -39% | S&P 500 yields more |
History check
Is the current premium normal?
1-year contextRich vs history
100th percentile; range 22.0x to 38.3x
5-year contextRich vs history
100th percentile; range 12.1x to 38.3x
Internal health
Median revenue growth7.6%
Median gross margin39.0%
Median FCF margin9.8%
Against the S&P 500, Consumer Cyclical Sector currently trades at 38.3x trailing earnings versus 33.6x for the broad market. That premium only makes sense if investors keep believing the sector deserves better margins, stronger returns on equity, and more durable growth than the index overall.
Industry Breakdown
Where the real weight sits inside Consumer Cyclical Sector
These cards are built from the full sector universe, then ranked by market cap so you can see which pockets are leading, rich, resilient, or dangerously concentrated.
Industry Scoreboard
Fast scan of Consumer Cyclical Sector industry setups
Use this table to spot heavyweights, cheap pockets, leaders, and genuinely beaten-down areas before opening the detailed cards below.
Specialty Retail 89 stocks | 42.8% $4.01T | Neutral -10.9% median 3M | Premium 18.2x median Fwd P/E | Mixed 1.3% median ROE | Average 0.4% rev growth | Mixed One-name heavy |
Auto Manufacturers 33 stocks | 22.1% $2.07T | Lagging -11.4% median 3M | Fair 7.4x median Fwd P/E | Weak -14.2% median ROE | Strong 14.9% rev growth | Broken One-name heavy |
Restaurants 52 stocks | 5.9% $552.41B | Neutral -4.5% median 3M | Premium 19.2x median Fwd P/E | Mixed 4.9% median ROE | Weak 4.7% rev growth | Mixed Concentrated |
Home Improvement Retail 10 stocks | 4.8% $445.98B | Lagging -18.3% median 3M | Fair 16.1x median Fwd P/E | Mixed 12.2% median ROE | Weak 0.1% rev growth | Broken One-name heavy |
Travel Services 17 stocks | 4.3% $398.23B | Neutral -8.6% median 3M | Fair 14.1x median Fwd P/E | High 22.7% median ROE | Strong 10.0% rev growth | Watchlist Concentrated |
Apparel Retail 31 stocks | 3.6% $336.3B | Neutral -6.8% median 3M | Fair 13.3x median Fwd P/E | High 12.8% median ROE | Average 2.9% rev growth | Watchlist One-name heavy |
Auto Parts & Equipment 54 stocks | 3.0% $278.85B | Neutral -4.4% median 3M | Fair 13.1x median Fwd P/E | Mixed 2.2% median ROE | Weak 4.1% rev growth | Mixed Concentrated |
Hotels & Lodging 12 stocks | 2.5% $232.22B | Leading +1.4% median 3M | Premium 16.7x median Fwd P/E | High 39.8% median ROE | Strong 6.9% rev growth | Expensive Leader One-name heavy |
Homebuilders 22 stocks | 1.7% $158.23B | Neutral -13.2% median 3M | Cheap 14.0x median Fwd P/E | Mixed 10.8% median ROE | Weak -3.8% rev growth | Mixed Concentrated |
Casinos & Gaming 31 stocks | 1.6% $149.79B | Neutral -1.1% median 3M | Fair 17.0x median Fwd P/E | High 9.2% median ROE | Strong 4.2% rev growth | Watchlist Diversified |
Leisure 34 stocks | 1.5% $139.1B | Neutral -1.7% median 3M | Fair 19.0x median Fwd P/E | Mixed -0.3% median ROE | Average -0.6% rev growth | Mixed Concentrated |
Packaging 21 stocks | 1.4% $134.45B | Neutral -8.5% median 3M | Cheap 14.4x median Fwd P/E | Mixed 12.3% median ROE | Strong 7.2% rev growth | Attractive Diversified |
Apparel Manufacturing 26 stocks | 1.1% $100.12B | Leading +6.3% median 3M | Fair 19.1x median Fwd P/E | Mixed 4.5% median ROE | Average 0.6% rev growth | Mixed One-name heavy |
Auto Dealerships 28 stocks | 1.0% $93.4B | Lagging -16.9% median 3M | Cheap 12.2x median Fwd P/E | Mixed 3.0% median ROE | Strong 2.8% rev growth | Beaten Down Concentrated |
Footwear & Accessories 15 stocks | 0.9% $84.15B | Neutral +0.3% median 3M | Fair 16.1x median Fwd P/E | Mixed 9.2% median ROE | Weak 2.3% rev growth | Mixed One-name heavy |
Personal Services 18 stocks | 0.6% $53.67B | Lagging -7.5% median 3M | Fair 14.7x median Fwd P/E | High 17.1% median ROE | Strong 4.7% rev growth | Watchlist One-name heavy |
Home Furnishings 32 stocks | 0.5% $43.6B | Neutral -8.9% median 3M | Cheap 13.2x median Fwd P/E | Mixed 5.0% median ROE | Weak -2.7% rev growth | Mixed Concentrated |
Luxury Goods 12 stocks | 0.4% $40.72B | Neutral -0.0% median 3M | Premium 21.7x median Fwd P/E | Mixed 5.4% median ROE | Strong 1.3% rev growth | Mixed One-name heavy |
Recreational Vehicles 17 stocks | 0.2% $22.96B | Neutral -16.0% median 3M | Premium 18.1x median Fwd P/E | Weak -3.8% median ROE | Strong 4.3% rev growth | Mixed Diversified |
Department Stores 3 stocks | 0.1% $13.62B | Lagging -12.0% median 3M | Cheap 10.2x median Fwd P/E | High 14.2% median ROE | Weak -4.3% rev growth | Broken One-name heavy |
Discount Stores 1 stocks | 0.1% $12.53B | Neutral +16.9% median 3M | Premium 35.6x median Fwd P/E | High 18.1% median ROE | Strong 22.9% rev growth | Mixed One-name heavy |
Showing 21 of 21 industries in Consumer Cyclical Sector.
Setup is a quick read of value, quality, growth, momentum, and concentration together.
42.8% OF SECTOR
Specialty Retail
Premium vs sectorMixed qualityNeutralAverage growthOne-name heavy
Specialty Retail is a core pocket of consumer cyclical, moving broadly in line with the rest of the sector; growth is near the sector average, quality signals are mixed, and valuation still carries a premium. Leadership is extremely concentrated in one or two names.
Median 3M return
-10.9%
Forward P/E
18.2x
Top 3 weight
84.8%
Market cap
$4.01T
Coverage
89 stocks
Breadth
34% pos. in 3M
Open filtered screener
22.1% OF SECTOR
Auto Manufacturers
Fairly pricedWeak qualityLaggingStrong growthOne-name heavy
Auto Manufacturers is a core pocket of consumer cyclical, currently lagging on price action; growth is running above sector norms, quality metrics trail the sector median, and valuation is close to sector norms. Leadership is extremely concentrated in one or two names.
Median 3M return
-11.4%
Forward P/E
7.4x
Top 3 weight
86.0%
Market cap
$2.07T
Coverage
33 stocks
Breadth
31% pos. in 3M
Open filtered screener
5.9% OF SECTOR
Restaurants
Premium vs sectorMixed qualityNeutralWeak growthConcentrated
Restaurants is a meaningful pocket of consumer cyclical, moving broadly in line with the rest of the sector; growth is softer than the sector average, quality signals are mixed, and valuation still carries a premium. Leadership is concentrated in a few names.
Median 3M return
-4.5%
Forward P/E
19.2x
Top 3 weight
66.1%
Market cap
$552.41B
Coverage
52 stocks
Breadth
37% pos. in 3M
Open filtered screener
4.8% OF SECTOR
Home Improvement Retail
Fairly pricedMixed qualityLaggingWeak growthOne-name heavy
Home Improvement Retail is a smaller pocket of consumer cyclical, currently lagging on price action; growth is softer than the sector average, quality signals are mixed, and valuation is close to sector norms. Leadership is extremely concentrated in one or two names.
Median 3M return
-18.3%
Forward P/E
16.1x
Top 3 weight
99.7%
Market cap
$445.98B
Coverage
10 stocks
Breadth
20% pos. in 3M
Open filtered screener
4.3% OF SECTOR
Travel Services
Fairly pricedHigh qualityNeutralStrong growthConcentrated
Travel Services is a smaller pocket of consumer cyclical, moving broadly in line with the rest of the sector; growth is running above sector norms, business quality is stronger than the sector median, and valuation is close to sector norms. Leadership is concentrated in a few names.
Median 3M return
-8.6%
Forward P/E
14.1x
Top 3 weight
71.9%
Market cap
$398.23B
Coverage
17 stocks
Breadth
29% pos. in 3M
Open filtered screener
3.6% OF SECTOR
Apparel Retail
Fairly pricedHigh qualityNeutralAverage growthOne-name heavy
Apparel Retail is a smaller pocket of consumer cyclical, moving broadly in line with the rest of the sector; growth is near the sector average, business quality is stronger than the sector median, and valuation is close to sector norms. Leadership is extremely concentrated in one or two names.
Median 3M return
-6.8%
Forward P/E
13.3x
Top 3 weight
79.3%
Market cap
$336.3B
Coverage
31 stocks
Breadth
37% pos. in 3M
Open filtered screener
3.0% OF SECTOR
Auto Parts & Equipment
Fairly pricedMixed qualityNeutralWeak growthConcentrated
Auto Parts & Equipment is a smaller pocket of consumer cyclical, moving broadly in line with the rest of the sector; growth is softer than the sector average, quality signals are mixed, and valuation is close to sector norms. Leadership is concentrated in a few names.
Median 3M return
-4.4%
Forward P/E
13.1x
Top 3 weight
55.6%
Market cap
$278.85B
Coverage
54 stocks
Breadth
43% pos. in 3M
Open filtered screener
2.5% OF SECTOR
Hotels & Lodging
Premium vs sectorHigh qualityLeadingStrong growthOne-name heavy
Hotels & Lodging is a smaller pocket of consumer cyclical, still leading on price action; growth is running above sector norms, business quality is stronger than the sector median, and valuation still carries a premium. Leadership is extremely concentrated in one or two names.
Median 3M return
+1.4%
Forward P/E
16.7x
Top 3 weight
80.3%
Market cap
$232.22B
Coverage
12 stocks
Breadth
64% pos. in 3M
Open filtered screener
1.7% OF SECTOR
Homebuilders
Cheap vs sectorMixed qualityNeutralWeak growthConcentrated
Homebuilders is a smaller pocket of consumer cyclical, moving broadly in line with the rest of the sector; growth is softer than the sector average, quality signals are mixed, and valuation sits below sector norms. Leadership is concentrated in a few names.
Median 3M return
-13.2%
Forward P/E
14.0x
Top 3 weight
52.9%
Market cap
$158.23B
Coverage
22 stocks
Breadth
5% pos. in 3M
Open filtered screener
1.6% OF SECTOR
Casinos & Gaming
Fairly pricedHigh qualityNeutralStrong growthDiversified
Casinos & Gaming is a smaller pocket of consumer cyclical, moving broadly in line with the rest of the sector; growth is running above sector norms, business quality is stronger than the sector median, and valuation is close to sector norms.
Median 3M return
-1.1%
Forward P/E
17.0x
Top 3 weight
43.2%
Market cap
$149.79B
Coverage
31 stocks
Breadth
48% pos. in 3M
Open filtered screener
1.5% OF SECTOR
Leisure
Fairly pricedMixed qualityNeutralAverage growthConcentrated
Leisure is a smaller pocket of consumer cyclical, moving broadly in line with the rest of the sector; growth is near the sector average, quality signals are mixed, and valuation is close to sector norms. Leadership is concentrated in a few names.
Median 3M return
-1.7%
Forward P/E
19.0x
Top 3 weight
62.8%
Market cap
$139.1B
Coverage
34 stocks
Breadth
47% pos. in 3M
Open filtered screener
1.4% OF SECTOR
Packaging
Cheap vs sectorMixed qualityNeutralStrong growthDiversified
Packaging is a smaller pocket of consumer cyclical, moving broadly in line with the rest of the sector; growth is running above sector norms, quality signals are mixed, and valuation sits below sector norms.
Median 3M return
-8.5%
Forward P/E
14.4x
Top 3 weight
43.1%
Market cap
$134.45B
Coverage
21 stocks
Breadth
24% pos. in 3M
Open filtered screener
Showing top 12 of 21 industries
Sector Outlook
Consumer Cyclical Sector Outlook - Q1 2026
Updated Q1 2026
Watch inventory discipline, pricing power, and margin protection. Travel and experience businesses may diverge from big-ticket goods and housing-linked names.
The strongest setups combine brand strength and pricing power with cleaner balance sheets than the market initially gives credit for.
Earnings Calendar
Upcoming Earnings in Consumer Cyclical Sector
Earnings reports are the biggest near-term catalysts for sector moves. Track which names report in the next 60 days and size your positions accordingly.
No earnings in the next 60 days
Check individual stock pages for the latest earnings dates and estimated EPS.
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