Consumer cyclicals in 2026 balance resilient spending against tighter financing. Strong labor markets support demand, but weak affordability and trade-down behavior pressure parts of retail, autos, and housing.
Sector AnalysisETF: XLYUpdated Jun 20, 2026
Consumer Cyclical Sector Stocks
Consumer Cyclical covers businesses tied to discretionary spending — retailers, automakers, hotels, restaurants, leisure, apparel, and housing-related names. The sector outperforms when employment and confidence are strong, but weakens fast when spending slows. XLY is the main benchmark. Screening helps separate durable franchises from highly cyclical demand stories.
Research ByVCP Scanner Editorial Team
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| Ticker | Company | Price | Mkt Cap | P/E | ROE | Div Yield | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amazon.com, Inc. | $244.39 | $2.63T | 34.1 | 22.3% | — | ||
| Tesla, Inc. | $400.49 | $1.5T | 370.8 | 4.8% | — | ||
| The Home Depot, Inc. | $334.28 | $332.95B | 23.5 | 145.5% | 2.7% | ||
| Alibaba Group Holding Limited | $107.06 | $249.84B | 16.5 | 9.4% | 1.9% | ||
| Toyota Motor Corporation | $173.94 | $226.7B | 9.0 | 10.5% | 3.6% | ||
| McDonald's Corporation | $278.61 | $197.95B | 23.3 | — | 2.6% | ||
| The TJX Companies, Inc. | $163.82 | $181.32B | 33.6 | 59.1% | 1% | ||
| Booking Holdings Inc. | $171.78 | $133.11B | 25.9 | — | 0.9% | ||
| Lowe's Companies, Inc. | $222.10 | $124.53B | 18.7 | — | 2.1% | ||
| Starbucks Corporation | $100.65 | $114.71B | 61.7 | — | 2.4% | ||
| PDD Holdings Inc. | $79.56 | $111.7B | 8.3 | 26.9% | — | ||
| Marriott International, Inc. | $396.20 | $104.47B | 41.7 | — | 0.7% | ||
| Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. | $312.51 | $84.54B | 20.0 | 47.5% | 0.3% | ||
| Airbnb, Inc. | $142.41 | $84.52B | 35.3 | 30.2% | — | ||
| MercadoLibre, Inc. | $1635.15 | $82.9B | 41.5 | 36% | — | ||
| Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. | $348.84 | $79.41B | 57.0 | — | 0.2% | ||
| Ross Stores, Inc. | $232.80 | $75.3B | 35.2 | 36.7% | 0.7% | ||
| O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. | $86.84 | $72.66B | 29.2 | — | — | ||
| Carvana Co. | $66.55 | $72.14B | 39.4 | 50.4% | — | ||
| General Motors Company | $79.29 | $71.49B | 24.2 | 4.2% | 0.9% | ||
| Ferrari N.V. | $362.13 | $63.92B | 35.3 | 42.8% | 1.9% | ||
| Sea Limited | $91.28 | $55.91B | 36.2 | 14.9% | — | ||
| Ford Motor Company | $14.04 | $55.02B | -6.8 | -20.2% | 5.4% | ||
| NIKE, Inc. | $45.20 | $53.83B | 20.9 | 23.3% | 3.4% | ||
| AutoZone, Inc. | $3064.48 | $50.16B | 21.2 | — | — | ||
| eBay Inc. | $108.24 | $49.47B | 24.9 | 41.6% | 1.1% | ||
| D.R. Horton, Inc. | $157.81 | $45.72B | 13.6 | 14.2% | 1% | ||
| Viking Holdings Ltd | $97.17 | $43.17B | 37.8 | 254.3% | — | ||
| Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. | $32.48 | $42.31B | 28.5 | 47.4% | — | ||
| Yum! Brands, Inc. | $151.99 | $42.01B | 27.3 | — | 1.9% |
AMZNAmazon.com, Inc.
$244.39Price
Mkt Cap$2.63T
P/E34.1
ROE22.3%
Div Yield—
TSLATesla, Inc.
$400.49Price
Mkt Cap$1.5T
P/E370.8
ROE4.8%
Div Yield—
HDThe Home Depot, Inc.
$334.28Price
Mkt Cap$332.95B
P/E23.5
ROE145.5%
Div Yield2.7%
BABAAlibaba Group Holding Limited
$107.06Price
Mkt Cap$249.84B
P/E16.5
ROE9.4%
Div Yield1.9%
TMToyota Motor Corporation
$173.94Price
Mkt Cap$226.7B
P/E9.0
ROE10.5%
Div Yield3.6%
MCDMcDonald's Corporation
$278.61Price
Mkt Cap$197.95B
P/E23.3
ROE—
Div Yield2.6%
TJXThe TJX Companies, Inc.
$163.82Price
Mkt Cap$181.32B
P/E33.6
ROE59.1%
Div Yield1%
BKNGBooking Holdings Inc.
$171.78Price
Mkt Cap$133.11B
P/E25.9
ROE—
Div Yield0.9%
LOWLowe's Companies, Inc.
$222.10Price
Mkt Cap$124.53B
P/E18.7
ROE—
Div Yield2.1%
SBUXStarbucks Corporation
$100.65Price
Mkt Cap$114.71B
P/E61.7
ROE—
Div Yield2.4%
PDDPDD Holdings Inc.
$79.56Price
Mkt Cap$111.7B
P/E8.3
ROE26.9%
Div Yield—
MARMarriott International, Inc.
$396.20Price
Mkt Cap$104.47B
P/E41.7
ROE—
Div Yield0.7%
RCLRoyal Caribbean Cruises Ltd.
$312.51Price
Mkt Cap$84.54B
P/E20.0
ROE47.5%
Div Yield0.3%
ABNBAirbnb, Inc.
$142.41Price
Mkt Cap$84.52B
P/E35.3
ROE30.2%
Div Yield—
MELIMercadoLibre, Inc.
$1635.15Price
Mkt Cap$82.9B
P/E41.5
ROE36%
Div Yield—
HLTHilton Worldwide Holdings Inc.
$348.84Price
Mkt Cap$79.41B
P/E57.0
ROE—
Div Yield0.2%
ROSTRoss Stores, Inc.
$232.80Price
Mkt Cap$75.3B
P/E35.2
ROE36.7%
Div Yield0.7%
ORLYO'Reilly Automotive, Inc.
$86.84Price
Mkt Cap$72.66B
P/E29.2
ROE—
Div Yield—
CVNACarvana Co.
$66.55Price
Mkt Cap$72.14B
P/E39.4
ROE50.4%
Div Yield—
GMGeneral Motors Company
$79.29Price
Mkt Cap$71.49B
P/E24.2
ROE4.2%
Div Yield0.9%
RACEFerrari N.V.
$362.13Price
Mkt Cap$63.92B
P/E35.3
ROE42.8%
Div Yield1.9%
SESea Limited
$91.28Price
Mkt Cap$55.91B
P/E36.2
ROE14.9%
Div Yield—
FFord Motor Company
$14.04Price
Mkt Cap$55.02B
P/E-6.8
ROE-20.2%
Div Yield5.4%
NKENIKE, Inc.
$45.20Price
Mkt Cap$53.83B
P/E20.9
ROE23.3%
Div Yield3.4%
AZOAutoZone, Inc.
$3064.48Price
Mkt Cap$50.16B
P/E21.2
ROE—
Div Yield—
EBAYeBay Inc.
$108.24Price
Mkt Cap$49.47B
P/E24.9
ROE41.6%
Div Yield1.1%
DHID.R. Horton, Inc.
$157.81Price
Mkt Cap$45.72B
P/E13.6
ROE14.2%
Div Yield1%
VIKViking Holdings Ltd
$97.17Price
Mkt Cap$43.17B
P/E37.8
ROE254.3%
Div Yield—
CMGChipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.
$32.48Price
Mkt Cap$42.31B
P/E28.5
ROE47.4%
Div Yield—
YUMYum! Brands, Inc.
$151.99Price
Mkt Cap$42.01B
P/E27.3
ROE—
Div Yield1.9%
Market Comparison
Consumer Cyclical Sector vs S&P 500 in one glance
This should answer the only question that matters here: are you getting something better than the market for the price you are paying?
Price vs market
Near market
Valuation is broadly in line with the market
Quality vs market
Lower quality
Net margin 10.2% vs 25.7%; ROE 26.0% vs 47.7%
Income vs market
Lower yield
Sector yield 0.62% vs 1.00%
Comparison table
Winner should register in under three seconds.
| Metric | Consumer Cyclical Sector | S&P 500 | Delta | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Trailing P/E Market is cheaper | 37.2x | 34.5x | +8% | S&P 500 cheaper |
Forward P/E Market is cheaper | 28.6x | 24.2x | +18% | S&P 500 cheaper |
EV/EBITDA Sector is cheaper | 21.1x | 23.1x | -9% | Sector cheaper |
Net Margin Market is stronger | 10.2% | 25.7% | -60% | S&P 500 stronger |
ROE Market is stronger | 26.0% | 47.7% | -46% | S&P 500 stronger |
Dividend Yield Market is stronger | 0.6% | 1.0% | -38% | S&P 500 yields more |
History check
Is the current premium normal?
1-year contextRich vs history
86th percentile; range 22.0x to 39.6x
5-year contextRich vs history
91th percentile; range 12.1x to 39.6x
Internal health
Median revenue growth8.3%
Median gross margin36.2%
Median FCF margin10.5%
Against the S&P 500, Consumer Cyclical Sector currently trades at 37.2x trailing earnings versus 34.5x for the broad market. That premium only makes sense if investors keep believing the sector deserves better margins, stronger returns on equity, and more durable growth than the index overall.
Industry Breakdown
Where the real weight sits inside Consumer Cyclical Sector
These cards are built from the full sector universe, then ranked by market cap so you can see which pockets are leading, rich, resilient, or dangerously concentrated.
Industry Scoreboard
Fast scan of Consumer Cyclical Sector industry setups
Use this table to spot heavyweights, cheap pockets, leaders, and genuinely beaten-down areas before opening the detailed cards below.
Specialty Retail 89 stocks | 39.6% $3.57T | Lagging -2.2% median 3M | Fair 17.8x median Fwd P/E | Mixed 1.7% median ROE | Strong 1.6% rev growth | Watchlist One-name heavy |
Auto Manufacturers 33 stocks | 22.7% $2.05T | Lagging -6.5% median 3M | Fair 7.3x median Fwd P/E | Weak -14.2% median ROE | Average 12.7% rev growth | Broken One-name heavy |
Restaurants 52 stocks | 6.0% $537.68B | Neutral +5.4% median 3M | Premium 19.6x median Fwd P/E | Mixed 6.7% median ROE | Average 4.7% rev growth | Mixed Concentrated |
Home Improvement Retail 10 stocks | 5.2% $465.05B | Neutral +1.5% median 3M | Fair 16.5x median Fwd P/E | Mixed 6.2% median ROE | Weak 4.0% rev growth | Mixed One-name heavy |
Travel Services 17 stocks | 4.7% $424.36B | Neutral +8.6% median 3M | Fair 14.4x median Fwd P/E | High 23.9% median ROE | Strong 7.6% rev growth | Watchlist Concentrated |
Apparel Retail 31 stocks | 4.1% $366.52B | Leading +12.3% median 3M | Fair 14.5x median Fwd P/E | High 15.1% median ROE | Strong 4.7% rev growth | Watchlist One-name heavy |
Auto Parts & Equipment 54 stocks | 3.0% $273.89B | Neutral +11.7% median 3M | Cheap 13.4x median Fwd P/E | Mixed 3.4% median ROE | Average 4.8% rev growth | Mixed Concentrated |
Hotels & Lodging 12 stocks | 2.9% $258.86B | Neutral +7.3% median 3M | Premium 17.6x median Fwd P/E | High 39.3% median ROE | Strong 7.8% rev growth | Mixed One-name heavy |
Homebuilders 22 stocks | 1.9% $173.22B | Leading +13.0% median 3M | Cheap 15.8x median Fwd P/E | Mixed 10.8% median ROE | Weak -5.9% rev growth | Mixed Concentrated |
Casinos & Gaming 31 stocks | 1.7% $153.17B | Neutral +6.1% median 3M | Fair 18.2x median Fwd P/E | Mixed 8.4% median ROE | Average 4.3% rev growth | Mixed Diversified |
Leisure 34 stocks | 1.7% $152.87B | Neutral +13.6% median 3M | Fair 17.1x median Fwd P/E | Mixed -0.6% median ROE | Strong 2.0% rev growth | Watchlist Concentrated |
Packaging 21 stocks | 1.6% $143.86B | Leading +6.2% median 3M | Cheap 14.9x median Fwd P/E | Mixed 13.5% median ROE | Average 7.2% rev growth | Mixed Diversified |
Footwear & Accessories 15 stocks | 1.0% $91.54B | Neutral +6.0% median 3M | Fair 18.3x median Fwd P/E | High 9.2% median ROE | Weak 4.2% rev growth | Watchlist One-name heavy |
Auto Dealerships 28 stocks | 1.0% $89.38B | Lagging +0.6% median 3M | Cheap 11.9x median Fwd P/E | Mixed 4.7% median ROE | Strong 4.8% rev growth | Beaten Down Concentrated |
Apparel Manufacturing 26 stocks | 0.9% $79.09B | Leading +19.2% median 3M | Fair 17.3x median Fwd P/E | Mixed 6.3% median ROE | Weak 1.1% rev growth | Mixed Concentrated |
Personal Services 18 stocks | 0.5% $48.19B | Lagging -5.6% median 3M | Fair 13.9x median Fwd P/E | Mixed 17.6% median ROE | Strong 2.8% rev growth | Watchlist Concentrated |
Home Furnishings 32 stocks | 0.5% $47.38B | Neutral +17.2% median 3M | Cheap 15.3x median Fwd P/E | Weak 1.9% median ROE | Weak -3.8% rev growth | Mixed Concentrated |
Luxury Goods 12 stocks | 0.5% $41.38B | Neutral +2.3% median 3M | Premium 27.2x median Fwd P/E | Mixed 16.0% median ROE | Strong 2.6% rev growth | Mixed One-name heavy |
Recreational Vehicles 17 stocks | 0.3% $23.04B | Lagging -7.1% median 3M | Fair 19.0x median Fwd P/E | Mixed 3.0% median ROE | Strong 4.7% rev growth | Watchlist Diversified |
Department Stores 3 stocks | 0.2% $16.95B | Neutral +36.2% median 3M | Cheap 12.3x median Fwd P/E | High 14.4% median ROE | Average -3.8% rev growth | Attractive One-name heavy |
Discount Stores 1 stocks | 0.1% $10.73B | Lagging -8.7% median 3M | Premium 30.4x median Fwd P/E | High 21.1% median ROE | Strong 25.9% rev growth | Mixed One-name heavy |
Showing 21 of 21 industries in Consumer Cyclical Sector.
Setup is a quick read of value, quality, growth, momentum, and concentration together.
39.6% OF SECTOR
Specialty Retail
Fairly pricedMixed qualityLaggingStrong growthOne-name heavy
Specialty Retail is a core pocket of consumer cyclical, currently lagging on price action; growth is running above sector norms, quality signals are mixed, and valuation is close to sector norms. Leadership is extremely concentrated in one or two names.
Median 3M return
-2.2%
Forward P/E
17.8x
Top 3 weight
83.7%
Market cap
$3.57T
Coverage
89 stocks
Breadth
47% pos. in 3M
Open filtered screener
22.7% OF SECTOR
Auto Manufacturers
Fairly pricedWeak qualityLaggingAverage growthOne-name heavy
Auto Manufacturers is a core pocket of consumer cyclical, currently lagging on price action; growth is near the sector average, quality metrics trail the sector median, and valuation is close to sector norms. Leadership is extremely concentrated in one or two names.
Median 3M return
-6.5%
Forward P/E
7.3x
Top 3 weight
87.8%
Market cap
$2.05T
Coverage
33 stocks
Breadth
43% pos. in 3M
Open filtered screener
6.0% OF SECTOR
Restaurants
Premium vs sectorMixed qualityNeutralAverage growthConcentrated
Restaurants is a meaningful pocket of consumer cyclical, moving broadly in line with the rest of the sector; growth is near the sector average, quality signals are mixed, and valuation still carries a premium. Leadership is concentrated in a few names.
Median 3M return
+5.4%
Forward P/E
19.6x
Top 3 weight
66.0%
Market cap
$537.68B
Coverage
52 stocks
Breadth
55% pos. in 3M
Open filtered screener
5.2% OF SECTOR
Home Improvement Retail
Fairly pricedMixed qualityNeutralWeak growthOne-name heavy
Home Improvement Retail is a meaningful pocket of consumer cyclical, moving broadly in line with the rest of the sector; growth is softer than the sector average, quality signals are mixed, and valuation is close to sector norms. Leadership is extremely concentrated in one or two names.
Median 3M return
+1.5%
Forward P/E
16.5x
Top 3 weight
99.6%
Market cap
$465.05B
Coverage
10 stocks
Breadth
60% pos. in 3M
Open filtered screener
4.7% OF SECTOR
Travel Services
Fairly pricedHigh qualityNeutralStrong growthConcentrated
Travel Services is a smaller pocket of consumer cyclical, moving broadly in line with the rest of the sector; growth is running above sector norms, business quality is stronger than the sector median, and valuation is close to sector norms. Leadership is concentrated in a few names.
Median 3M return
+8.6%
Forward P/E
14.4x
Top 3 weight
71.2%
Market cap
$424.36B
Coverage
17 stocks
Breadth
65% pos. in 3M
Open filtered screener
4.1% OF SECTOR
Apparel Retail
Fairly pricedHigh qualityLeadingStrong growthOne-name heavy
Apparel Retail is a smaller pocket of consumer cyclical, still leading on price action; growth is running above sector norms, business quality is stronger than the sector median, and valuation is close to sector norms. Leadership is extremely concentrated in one or two names.
Median 3M return
+12.3%
Forward P/E
14.5x
Top 3 weight
75.9%
Market cap
$366.52B
Coverage
31 stocks
Breadth
67% pos. in 3M
Open filtered screener
3.0% OF SECTOR
Auto Parts & Equipment
Cheap vs sectorMixed qualityNeutralAverage growthConcentrated
Auto Parts & Equipment is a smaller pocket of consumer cyclical, moving broadly in line with the rest of the sector; growth is near the sector average, quality signals are mixed, and valuation sits below sector norms. Leadership is concentrated in a few names.
Median 3M return
+11.7%
Forward P/E
13.4x
Top 3 weight
51.5%
Market cap
$273.89B
Coverage
54 stocks
Breadth
67% pos. in 3M
Open filtered screener
2.9% OF SECTOR
Hotels & Lodging
Premium vs sectorHigh qualityNeutralStrong growthOne-name heavy
Hotels & Lodging is a smaller pocket of consumer cyclical, moving broadly in line with the rest of the sector; growth is running above sector norms, business quality is stronger than the sector median, and valuation still carries a premium. Leadership is extremely concentrated in one or two names.
Median 3M return
+7.3%
Forward P/E
17.6x
Top 3 weight
81.0%
Market cap
$258.86B
Coverage
12 stocks
Breadth
64% pos. in 3M
Open filtered screener
1.9% OF SECTOR
Homebuilders
Cheap vs sectorMixed qualityLeadingWeak growthConcentrated
Homebuilders is a smaller pocket of consumer cyclical, still leading on price action; growth is softer than the sector average, quality signals are mixed, and valuation sits below sector norms. Leadership is concentrated in a few names.
Median 3M return
+13.0%
Forward P/E
15.8x
Top 3 weight
53.3%
Market cap
$173.22B
Coverage
22 stocks
Breadth
86% pos. in 3M
Open filtered screener
1.7% OF SECTOR
Casinos & Gaming
Fairly pricedMixed qualityNeutralAverage growthDiversified
Casinos & Gaming is a smaller pocket of consumer cyclical, moving broadly in line with the rest of the sector; growth is near the sector average, quality signals are mixed, and valuation is close to sector norms.
Median 3M return
+6.1%
Forward P/E
18.2x
Top 3 weight
41.2%
Market cap
$153.17B
Coverage
31 stocks
Breadth
73% pos. in 3M
Open filtered screener
1.7% OF SECTOR
Leisure
Fairly pricedMixed qualityNeutralStrong growthConcentrated
Leisure is a smaller pocket of consumer cyclical, moving broadly in line with the rest of the sector; growth is running above sector norms, quality signals are mixed, and valuation is close to sector norms. Leadership is concentrated in a few names.
Median 3M return
+13.6%
Forward P/E
17.1x
Top 3 weight
64.1%
Market cap
$152.87B
Coverage
34 stocks
Breadth
61% pos. in 3M
Open filtered screener
1.6% OF SECTOR
Packaging
Cheap vs sectorMixed qualityLeadingAverage growthDiversified
Packaging is a smaller pocket of consumer cyclical, still leading on price action; growth is near the sector average, quality signals are mixed, and valuation sits below sector norms.
Median 3M return
+6.2%
Forward P/E
14.9x
Top 3 weight
43.9%
Market cap
$143.86B
Coverage
21 stocks
Breadth
76% pos. in 3M
Open filtered screener
Showing top 12 of 21 industries
Sector Outlook
Consumer Cyclical Sector Outlook - Q1 2026
Updated Q1 2026
Watch inventory discipline, pricing power, and margin protection. Travel and experience businesses may diverge from big-ticket goods and housing-linked names.
The strongest setups combine brand strength and pricing power with cleaner balance sheets than the market initially gives credit for.
Earnings Calendar
Upcoming Earnings in Consumer Cyclical Sector
Earnings reports are the biggest near-term catalysts for sector moves. Track which names report in the next 60 days and size your positions accordingly.
No earnings in the next 60 days
Check individual stock pages for the latest earnings dates and estimated EPS.
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