SRCE trades 10.8% below Wall Street's consensus target of $93.50.
Last 12 months price action with 12-month analyst target path
The base valuation assumes SRCE achieves its forward estimates and maintains a stable P/E multiple of 11.7x. This scenario reflects the blended consensus of 4 Wall Street analysts, balancing both positive catalysts and macroeconomic headwinds over the next 12 months.
As of September 24, 2026, 1st Source Corporation (SRCE) has a Wall Street consensus price target of $93.50, based on estimates from 4 covering analysts. With the stock currently trading at $84.38, this represents a potential upside of +10.8%. The company has a market capitalization of $2.03B.
Analyst price targets range from a low of $87.00 to a high of $100.00, representing a 14% spread in expectations. The median target of $93.50 aligns closely with the consensus average. The tight target dispersion indicates high conviction among analysts.
The current analyst consensus rating is Hold, with 1 analysts rating the stock as a Buy or Strong Buy,3 rating it Hold, and 0 rating it Sell or Strong Sell. The bearish sentiment suggests caution about the stock at current levels.
From a valuation perspective, SRCE trades at a trailing P/E of 13.1x and forward P/E of 11.7x. The forward PEG ratio of 0.76 suggests the stock may be undervalued relative to its growth. Analysts expect EPS to grow +2.4% over the next year.
Our proprietary valuation model, which blends historical multiples with forward estimates, suggests a base-case price target of $94.70, with bear and bull scenarios of $59.66 and $124.78 respectively. Model confidence stands at 48/100, suggesting limited visibility into future performance.
| Company | Market Cap | Price | Target | Upside Potential | Rating | Fwd P/E | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 FFINFirst Financial Bankshares, Inc. | $4.6B | $31.92 | $35.33 | +10.7% | Hold | 15.6x | 16 |
 FULTFulton Financial Corporation | $4.3B | $22.75 | $26.50 | +16.5% | Hold | 10.9x | 20 |
 IBCPIndependent Bank Corporation | $727M | $35.30 | $39.50 | +11.9% | Hold | 9.9x | 8 |
 NBTBNBT Bancorp Inc. | $2.6B | $50.48 | $56.67 | +12.3% | Hold | 12.1x | 10 |
 MBWMMercantile Bank Corporation | $1.0B | $58.68 | $64.00 | +9.1% | Buy | 10.6x | 8 |
 UVSPUnivest Financial Corporation | $1.1B | $41.41 | $32.50 | -21.5% | Hold | 10.9x | 6 |
 HBANHuntington Bancshares Incorporated | $31.1B | $15.38 | $20.11 | +30.8% | Hold | 11.2x | 49 |
 ONBOld National Bancorp | $9.6B | $24.74 | $29.86 | +20.7% | Hold | 9.5x | 22 |
 FBNCFirst Bancorp | $2.6B | $62.22 | $70.00 | +12.5% | Buy | 13.7x | 16 |
 SFNCSimmons First National Corporation | $3.3B | $22.89 | $26.17 | +14.3% | Buy | 11.2x | 9 |
Quick answers to the most common questions about buying SRCE stock.
1st Source Corporation (SRCE) has a consensus 12-month price target of $93.5, implying 10.8% upside from $84.38. The 4 analysts covering SRCE see moderate appreciation potential.
SRCE has a consensus rating of "Hold" based on 4 Wall Street analysts. The rating breakdown is mixed, with 3 Hold ratings making up the largest segment. The consensus 12-month price target of $93.5 implies 10.8% upside from current levels.
With a forward P/E of 11.6547x, SRCE trades at a relatively low valuation. The consensus target of $93.5 implies 10.8% appreciation, suggesting meaningful undervaluation.
The most bullish Wall Street analyst has a price target of $100 for SRCE, while the most conservative target is $87. The consensus of $93.5 represents the median expectation. Our quantitative valuation model projects a bull case target of $125 based on optimistic growth and margin assumptions. These targets typically reflect 12-month expectations.
SRCE is lightly followed, with 4 analysts providing price targets and ratings. Of these, 0 have Strong Buy ratings, 1 have Buy ratings, 3 recommend Hold, and 0 have Sell or Strong Sell ratings. Higher analyst coverage generally indicates greater institutional interest and more reliable consensus estimates.
The 12-month SRCE stock forecast based on 4 Wall Street analysts shows a consensus price target of $93.5, with estimates ranging from $87 (bear case) to $100 (bull case). The median consensus rating is "Hold". Our proprietary valuation model produces a base case fair value of $95, with bear/bull scenarios of $60/$125.
Our quantitative valuation model calculates SRCE's fair value at $95 (base case), with a bear case of $60 and bull case of $125. The model uses discounted cash flow analysis, historical growth rates, and margin mean-reversion to project FY+2 earnings, then applies an appropriate P/E multiple. The model confidence score is 48/100.
SRCE trades at a forward P/E ratio of 11.7x based on next-twelve-months earnings estimates compared to a trailing P/E of 13.1x. The lower forward P/E indicates analysts expect earnings growth. A forward P/E is useful for comparing valuations when earnings are expected to change significantly.
Wall Street analysts are optimistic on SRCE, with a "Hold" consensus rating and $93.5 price target (10.8% upside). 1 of 4 analysts rate it Buy or Strong Buy. This information is for educational purposes only. Always conduct your own research, consider your financial situation, and consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SRCE analyst price targets range from $87 to $100, a 14% tight range reflecting strong analyst consensus. Differences stem from varying assumptions about revenue growth, profit margins, competitive dynamics, and valuation multiples. The $93.5 consensus represents the middle ground. Our model's $60-$125 range provides an independent fundamental perspective.
Live VCP patterns, Cup & Handle overlays, support/resistance, and AI trade plans.
High-probability breakout stocks crossing their pivot across 5 pattern engines.
DCF models, multiple analysis, and analyst estimates.
10-year return with dividends reinvested.
Compare growth, multiples, and margins vs sector.