SRCE trades 10.4% below Wall Street's consensus target of $96.00.
Last 12 months price action with 12-month analyst target path
The base valuation assumes SRCE achieves its forward estimates and maintains a stable P/E multiple of 11.4x. This scenario reflects the blended consensus of 4 Wall Street analysts, balancing both positive catalysts and macroeconomic headwinds over the next 12 months.
As of November 8, 2026, 1st Source Corporation (SRCE) has a Wall Street consensus price target of $96.00, based on estimates from 4 covering analysts. With the stock currently trading at $86.94, this represents a potential upside of +10.4%. The company has a market capitalization of $2.09B.
Analyst price targets range from a low of $87.00 to a high of $105.00, representing a 19% spread in expectations. The median target of $96.00 aligns closely with the consensus average. The tight target dispersion indicates high conviction among analysts.
The current analyst consensus rating is Hold, with 1 analysts rating the stock as a Buy or Strong Buy,3 rating it Hold, and 0 rating it Sell or Strong Sell. The bearish sentiment suggests caution about the stock at current levels.
From a valuation perspective, SRCE trades at a trailing P/E of 11.8x and forward P/E of 11.4x. The forward PEG ratio of 0.75 suggests the stock may be undervalued relative to its growth. Analysts expect EPS to grow +2.7% over the next year.
Our proprietary valuation model, which blends historical multiples with forward estimates, suggests a base-case price target of $116.95, with bear and bull scenarios of $73.68 and $154.09 respectively. Model confidence stands at 48/100, suggesting limited visibility into future performance.
| Company | Market Cap | Price | Target | Upside Potential | Rating | Fwd P/E | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 FFINFirst Financial Bankshares, Inc. | $4.4B | $30.41 | $34.33 | +12.9% | Hold | 14.9x | 17 |
 FULTFulton Financial Corporation | $4.5B | $23.76 | $26.00 | +9.4% | Hold | 10.8x | 20 |
 IBCPIndependent Bank Corporation | $748M | $36.31 | $43.00 | +18.4% | Hold | 10.6x | 8 |
 NBTBNBT Bancorp Inc. | $2.7B | $52.83 | $57.67 | +9.2% | Hold | 12.6x | 10 |
 MBWMMercantile Bank Corporation | $1.0B | $60.57 | $64.00 | +5.7% | Buy | 10.9x | 8 |
 UVSPUnivest Financial Corporation | $1.1B | $40.47 | $32.50 | -19.7% | Hold | 11.0x | 6 |
 HBANHuntington Bancshares Incorporated | $31.3B | $15.47 | $19.33 | +25.0% | Hold | 11.8x | 49 |
 ONBOld National Bancorp | $9.6B | $24.93 | $29.63 | +18.9% | Buy | 9.7x | 23 |
 FBNCFirst Bancorp | $2.7B | $64.60 | $68.00 | +5.3% | Buy | 13.7x | 16 |
 SFNCSimmons First National Corporation | $3.4B | $23.34 | $25.88 | +10.9% | Buy | 11.2x | 9 |
Quick answers to the most common questions about buying SRCE stock.
1st Source Corporation (SRCE) has a consensus 12-month price target of $96, implying 10.4% upside from $86.94. The 4 analysts covering SRCE see moderate appreciation potential.
SRCE has a consensus rating of "Hold" based on 4 Wall Street analysts. The rating breakdown is mixed, with 3 Hold ratings making up the largest segment. The consensus 12-month price target of $96 implies 10.4% upside from current levels.
With a forward P/E of 11.4444x, SRCE trades at a relatively low valuation. The consensus target of $96 implies 10.4% appreciation, suggesting meaningful undervaluation.
The most bullish Wall Street analyst has a price target of $105 for SRCE, while the most conservative target is $87. The consensus of $96 represents the median expectation. Our quantitative valuation model projects a bull case target of $154 based on optimistic growth and margin assumptions. These targets typically reflect 12-month expectations.
SRCE is lightly followed, with 4 analysts providing price targets and ratings. Of these, 0 have Strong Buy ratings, 1 have Buy ratings, 3 recommend Hold, and 0 have Sell or Strong Sell ratings. Higher analyst coverage generally indicates greater institutional interest and more reliable consensus estimates.
The 12-month SRCE stock forecast based on 4 Wall Street analysts shows a consensus price target of $96, with estimates ranging from $87 (bear case) to $105 (bull case). The median consensus rating is "Hold". Our proprietary valuation model produces a base case fair value of $117, with bear/bull scenarios of $74/$154.
Our quantitative valuation model calculates SRCE's fair value at $117 (base case), with a bear case of $74 and bull case of $154. The model uses discounted cash flow analysis, historical growth rates, and margin mean-reversion to project FY+2 earnings, then applies an appropriate P/E multiple. The model confidence score is 48/100.
SRCE trades at a forward P/E ratio of 11.4x based on next-twelve-months earnings estimates compared to a trailing P/E of 11.8x. The lower forward P/E indicates analysts expect earnings growth. A forward P/E is useful for comparing valuations when earnings are expected to change significantly.
Wall Street analysts are optimistic on SRCE, with a "Hold" consensus rating and $96 price target (10.4% upside). 1 of 4 analysts rate it Buy or Strong Buy. This information is for educational purposes only. Always conduct your own research, consider your financial situation, and consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SRCE analyst price targets range from $87 to $105, a 19% tight range reflecting strong analyst consensus. Differences stem from varying assumptions about revenue growth, profit margins, competitive dynamics, and valuation multiples. The $96 consensus represents the middle ground. Our model's $74-$154 range provides an independent fundamental perspective.
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