MODEL VERDICT
AnaptysBio, Inc. (ANAB)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $66.76 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $58.88 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.62 | $67.51 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.62 | $67.89 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.62 | $70.10 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA 4 industry peers | $30.19 | -54.8% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 3 industry peers | $12.76 | -80.9% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 4 industry peers | $33.09 | -50.4% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 3 industry peers | $16.06 | -75.9% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 7 industry peers | $45.50 | -31.8% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 7 industry peers | $38.67 | -42.1% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 3 industry peers | $12.91 | -80.7% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $30.93 | -53.7% | 100% | 73 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/TBV | 5.83 | 2.22 | 0.72 | 27.22 | 9.52 |
| P/B Ratio | 5.83 | 2.22 | 0.72 | 27.22 | 9.52 |
| P/S Ratio | 19.71 | 10.06 | 2.75 | 56.57 | 20.33 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 15 valuation metrics, the model estimates ANAB's fair value at $30.93 vs the current price of $66.76, implying -53.7% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 73/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $30.93 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $19.67 (P10) to $35.66 (P90), with a median of $27.41.
ANAB's current P/E of -145.1x compares to the industry median of 36.7x (3 peers in the group). This represents a -495.5% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
22 analysts cover ANAB with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $73.88 (range: $50.00 — $140.00), implying +10.7% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (16), Hold (6), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 73/100, based on: data completeness (21), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for ANAB.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.