MODEL VERDICT
Kinetik Holdings Inc. (KNTK)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $49.39 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $47.47 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.46 | $46.67 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.43 | $46.79 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.47 | $47.29 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $15.89 | -67.8% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 8 industry peers | $18.54 | -62.5% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 7 industry peers | $113.28 | +129.4% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 7 industry peers | $57.17 | +15.8% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $65.06 | +31.7% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $88.08 | +78.3% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 7 industry peers | $113.28 | +129.4% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $48.38 | -2.0% | 100% | 72 | FAIRLY VALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 218.34 | 38.97 | 13.25 | 782.14 | 376.31 |
| EV/EBIT | 18.61 | 14.82 | 12.11 | 32.69 | 9.48 |
| EV/EBITDA | 12.34 | 11.96 | 11.39 | 13.79 | 0.99 |
| P/FCF | 6.21 | 6.79 | 3.50 | 9.43 | 2.55 |
| P/FFO | 9.34 | 4.09 | 2.49 | 36.80 | 13.52 |
| P/TBV | 2.75 | 1.47 | 0.85 | 7.48 | 2.61 |
| P/AFFO | 7.94 | 7.49 | 5.12 | 11.65 | 2.73 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.08 | 0.86 | 0.60 | 2.37 | 0.61 |
| Div Yield | 0.07 | 0.05 | 0.03 | 0.14 | 0.04 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.24 | 1.75 | 1.13 | 5.66 | 1.57 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 18 valuation metrics, the model estimates KNTK's fair value at $48.38 vs the current price of $49.39, implying -2.0% downside potential. Model verdict: Fairly Valued. Confidence: 72/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $48.38 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $34.93 (P10) to $44.98 (P90), with a median of $39.84.
KNTK's current P/E of N/Ax compares to the industry median of 16.0x (8 peers in the group). This represents a N/A discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 218.3x over 4 years. Signal: N/A.
15 analysts cover KNTK with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $47.57 (range: $42.00 — $51.00), implying -3.7% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (11), Hold (4), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 72/100, based on: data completeness (21), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for KNTK.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.