MODEL VERDICT
Nutex Health, Inc. (NUTX)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $139.57 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $108.24 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.61 | $105.58 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.61 | $109.00 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.61 | $101.05 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 7 analyst estimates | $221.36 | +58.6% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 7 industry peers | $488.70 | +250.1% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 7 industry peers | $147.15 | +5.4% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 7 industry peers | $461.32 | +230.5% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 7 industry peers | $602.47 | +331.7% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 7 industry peers | $817.85 | +486.0% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $246.47 | +76.6% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $215.27 | +54.2% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 6 industry peers | $153.01 | +9.6% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 7 industry peers | $448.84 | +221.6% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $406.01 | +190.9% | 100% | 77 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 9× | 11× | 13× (Current) | 15× | 17× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $96 | $118 | $139 | $160 | $182 |
| Conservative (5%) | $99 | $121 | $143 | $165 | $187 |
| Base Case (-15.8%) | $79 | $97 | $115 | $132 | $150 |
| Bull Case (-21%) | $74 | $91 | $107 | $124 | $140 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 15.36 | 7.75 | 4.81 | 33.53 | 15.80 |
| P/TBV | 5.38 | 2.95 | 0.94 | 14.69 | 6.28 |
| P/B Ratio | 3.78 | 2.15 | 0.80 | 10.02 | 4.24 |
| Div Yield | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.92 | 0.92 | 0.34 | 5.50 | 2.43 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 23 valuation metrics, the model estimates NUTX's fair value at $406.01 vs the current price of $139.57, implying +190.9% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 77/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $406.01 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $325.63 (P10) to $459.38 (P90), with a median of $389.78.
NUTX's current P/E of 13.3x compares to the industry median of 14.0x (7 peers in the group). This represents a -5.1% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Fair Value.
2 analysts cover NUTX with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $205.00 (range: $205.00 — $205.00), implying +46.9% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (2), Hold (0), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 77/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (10), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that NUTX's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.2σ, meaning margins are 0.2 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (16.0%), the model estimates fair value drops by 4620.0% to approximately $204. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.