MODEL VERDICT
Planet Labs PBC (PL)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.11 | $36.90 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.11 | $35.44 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.11 | $38.48 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.11 | $34.41 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.11 | $34.67 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price / Free Cash Flow 33 industry peers | $4.42 | -88.0% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 36 industry peers | $4.06 | -89.0% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 2 industry peers | $16.14 | -56.3% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 2 industry peers | $17.21 | -53.4% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 36 industry peers | $4.60 | -87.5% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $6.72 | -81.8% | 100% | 54 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/TBV | 138.29 | 12.07 | 1.51 | 619.09 | 245.92 |
| P/B Ratio | 13.48 | 2.32 | 1.15 | 60.28 | 23.36 |
| P/S Ratio | 13.35 | 6.91 | 2.34 | 36.91 | 13.92 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 11 valuation metrics, the model estimates PL's fair value at $6.72 vs the current price of $36.90, implying -81.8% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 54/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $6.72 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $5.32 (P10) to $8.93 (P90), with a median of $7.08.
PL's current P/E of -46.1x compares to the industry median of 19.8x (1 peers in the group). This represents a -332.7% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
22 analysts cover PL with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $25.54 (range: $12.30 — $38.00), implying -30.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (12), Hold (10), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 54/100, based on: data completeness (15), peer quality (22), historical depth (16), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: --8 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for PL.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.