MODEL VERDICT
Roku, Inc. (ROKU) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.58 | $98.41 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $89.06 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.54 | $90.06 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.45 | $90.91 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $111.17 | Below threshold | -20.4% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 24 analyst estimates | $51.33 | -47.8% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 27 industry peers | $18.48 | -81.2% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 18 industry peers | $16.02 | -83.7% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 23 industry peers | $57.19 | -41.9% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 23 industry peers | $74.57 | -24.2% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 29 industry peers | $64.43 | -34.5% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 29 industry peers | $35.61 | -63.8% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 18 industry peers | $16.02 | -83.7% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 23 industry peers | $57.08 | -42.0% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $121.13 | +23.1% | 100% | 76 | UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 141× | 154× | 167× (Current) | 180× | 193× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $87 | $94 | $102 | $110 | $118 |
| Conservative (7%) | $89 | $97 | $105 | $113 | $121 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $92 | $100 | $108 | $117 | $125 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $94 | $103 | $112 | $121 | $129 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA | 276.19 | 75.84 | 46.74 | 906.32 | 420.31 |
| P/FCF | 191.40 | 74.91 | 34.22 | 625.49 | 248.47 |
| P/FFO | 258.89 | 64.87 | 38.17 | 867.65 | 406.19 |
| P/TBV | 14.09 | 7.12 | 2.63 | 34.51 | 12.42 |
| P/AFFO | 59.37 | 52.46 | 38.64 | 87.01 | 24.91 |
| P/B Ratio | 11.85 | 6.16 | 2.12 | 31.00 | 10.76 |
| P/S Ratio | 8.58 | 3.72 | 1.79 | 23.15 | 7.95 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 22 valuation metrics, the model estimates ROKU's fair value at $121.13 vs the current price of $98.41, implying +23.1% upside potential. Model verdict: Undervalued. Confidence: 76/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $121.13 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $53.52 (P10) to $229.77 (P90), with a median of $129.96.
ROKU's current P/E of 166.8x compares to the industry median of 27.2x (18 peers in the group). This represents a +514.3% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: High Premium.
45 analysts cover ROKU with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $129.08 (range: $100.00 — $150.00), implying +31.2% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (35), Hold (8), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 76/100, based on: data completeness (24), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for ROKU.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.