MODEL VERDICT
TIC Solutions, Inc. (TIC)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.56 | $9.38 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.56 | $8.62 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.56 | $8.50 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.56 | $7.64 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.62 | $7.15 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 1 analyst estimates | $5.96 | -36.5% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Industry Median P/E 1 industry peers | $236.97 | +2426.3% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 22 industry peers | $9.17 | -2.2% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 22 industry peers | $12.00 | +27.9% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 1 industry peers | $32.25 | +243.8% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 1 industry peers | $27.36 | +191.7% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 1 industry peers | $217.48 | +2218.6% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 22 industry peers | $9.55 | +1.8% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $48.18 | +413.7% | 100% | 39 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 4× (Current) | 4× | 4× | 4× | 6× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $26 | $26 | $26 | $26 | $38 |
| Conservative (7%) | $26 | $26 | $26 | $26 | $39 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $27 | $27 | $27 | $27 | $41 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $28 | $28 | $28 | $28 | $42 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates TIC's fair value at $48.18 vs the current price of $9.38, implying +413.7% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 39/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $48.18 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $78.72 (P10) to $112.18 (P90), with a median of $95.00.
TIC's current P/E of 1.5x compares to the industry median of 38.5x (1 peers in the group). This represents a -96.0% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
2 analysts cover TIC with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $15.00 (range: $15.00 — $15.00), implying +59.9% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (0), Hold (1), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 39/100, based on: data completeness (21), peer quality (5), historical depth (5), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (3). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows weak agreement across inputs — interpret with caution.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for TIC.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.