MODEL VERDICT
Workiva Inc. (WK)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $54.76 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $53.15 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $57.34 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $56.47 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $52.36 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $62.62 | +14.4% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 7 industry peers | $52.06 | -4.9% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 7 industry peers | $52.08 | -4.9% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $84.87 | +55.0% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $91.56 | +67.2% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 7 industry peers | $52.35 | -4.4% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $107.63 | +96.5% | 100% | 67 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 160.21 | 80.17 | 35.17 | 576.28 | 187.78 |
| P/TBV | 115.41 | 70.80 | 37.05 | 238.36 | 107.81 |
| P/B Ratio | 234.90 | 80.24 | 35.92 | 743.20 | 339.63 |
| P/S Ratio | 9.27 | 8.27 | 5.49 | 15.05 | 3.39 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 15 valuation metrics, the model estimates WK's fair value at $107.63 vs the current price of $54.76, implying +96.5% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 67/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $107.63 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $55.20 (P10) to $186.20 (P90), with a median of $107.24.
WK's current P/E of -116.5x compares to the industry median of 30.7x (7 peers in the group). This represents a -479.6% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
18 analysts cover WK with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $94.00 (range: $79.00 — $110.00), implying +71.7% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (16), Hold (2), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 67/100, based on: data completeness (15), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for WK.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.