MODEL VERDICT
Xerox Holdings Corporation (XRX)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.60 | $2.70 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 1 analyst estimates | $3.36 | +24.4% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 1 industry peers | $27.55 | +920.4% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 1 industry peers | $2.06 | -23.7% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 1 industry peers | $87.63 | +3145.6% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 1 industry peers | $109.17 | +3943.3% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 1 industry peers | $20.89 | +673.7% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $17.20 | +537.2% | 100% | 53 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBIT | 57.69 | 20.42 | 10.83 | 141.83 | 73.03 |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.20 | 10.51 | 5.53 | 15.24 | 2.86 |
| P/FCF | 7.74 | 6.45 | 1.17 | 22.33 | 7.16 |
| P/FFO | 9.04 | 8.69 | 7.59 | 10.85 | 1.66 |
| P/TBV | 4.67 | 4.99 | 3.54 | 5.16 | 0.76 |
| P/AFFO | 10.27 | 10.01 | 8.08 | 12.71 | 2.33 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.87 | 0.84 | 0.45 | 1.41 | 0.30 |
| Div Yield | 0.09 | 0.06 | 0.03 | 0.23 | 0.07 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.45 | 0.40 | 0.04 | 0.90 | 0.30 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 14 valuation metrics, the model estimates XRX's fair value at $17.20 vs the current price of $2.70, implying +537.2% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 53/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $17.20 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $12.04 (P10) to $27.25 (P90), with a median of $19.19.
XRX's current P/E of -0.3x compares to the industry median of 20.1x (1 peers in the group). This represents a -101.6% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
5 analysts cover XRX with a consensus rating of Sell. The consensus price target is $10.25 (range: $8.00 — $14.00), implying +279.6% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (0), Hold (2), Sell (3), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 53/100, based on: data completeness (18), peer quality (8), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for XRX.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.