MODEL VERDICT
Hilltop Holdings Inc. (HTH)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.30 | $38.03 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.33 | $36.65 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.36 | $37.92 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.38 | $37.10 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $37.65 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 11 industry peers | $37.41 | -1.6% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 11 industry peers | $42.44 | +11.6% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 9 bank peers | $55.99 | +47.2% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 9 industry peers | $29.31 | -22.9% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 11 industry peers | $37.41 | -1.6% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 10 analyst estimates | $29.58 | -22.2% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $38.76 | +1.9% | 100% | 89 | FAIRLY VALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 10× | 12× | 14× (Current) | 16× | 18× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $27 | $32 | $38 | $43 | $48 |
| Conservative (5%) | $28 | $33 | $39 | $44 | $50 |
| Base Case (-10.4%) | $24 | $28 | $33 | $38 | $43 |
| Bull Case (-14%) | $23 | $27 | $32 | $36 | $41 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 13.25 | 12.86 | 6.01 | 20.83 | 5.65 |
| EV/EBIT | 8.67 | 8.25 | 2.98 | 13.39 | 4.26 |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.01 | 8.25 | 2.85 | 13.46 | 3.89 |
| P/FCF | 5.60 | 5.27 | 1.80 | 10.12 | 3.16 |
| P/FFO | 11.48 | 12.14 | 5.23 | 17.72 | 4.77 |
| P/TBV | 1.21 | 1.28 | 0.96 | 1.31 | 0.13 |
| P/AFFO | 12.55 | 13.73 | 5.69 | 18.96 | 5.03 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.02 | 1.05 | 0.84 | 1.12 | 0.09 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.39 | 1.43 | 1.14 | 1.57 | 0.17 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates HTH's fair value at $38.76 vs the current price of $38.03, implying +1.9% upside potential. Model verdict: Fairly Valued. Confidence: 89/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $38.76 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $35.12 (P10) to $43.33 (P90), with a median of $39.16.
HTH's current P/E of 14.4x compares to the industry median of 14.2x (11 peers in the group). This represents a +1.7% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 13.2x over 7 years. Signal: Fair Value.
12 analysts cover HTH with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $36.00 (range: $36.00 — $36.00), implying -5.3% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (5), Hold (7), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 89/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: HTH trades at the 6390th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (13.2×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that HTH's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.4σ, meaning margins are 0.4 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (12.3%), the model estimates fair value drops by 1130.0% to approximately $42. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.