MODEL VERDICT
Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacífico, S.A.B. de C.V. (PAC)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $249.40 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $268.28 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $251.20 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $242.91 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $245.42 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 1 analyst estimates | $181.32 | -27.3% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 1 industry peers | $5230.47 | +1997.2% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 1 industry peers | $4444.97 | +1682.3% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 1 industry peers | $2061.51 | +726.6% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 1 industry peers | $3538.34 | +1318.7% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 1 industry peers | $962.81 | +286.1% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 1 industry peers | $8499.42 | +3307.9% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 1 industry peers | $2448.79 | +881.9% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 1 industry peers | $2895.13 | +1060.8% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 1 industry peers | $4186.81 | +1578.8% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 1 industry peers | $1868.96 | +649.4% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $1828.77 | +633.3% | 100% | 64 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 18× | 20× | 22× (Current) | 24× | 26× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (16%) | $4125 | $4583 | $5041 | $5499 | $5958 |
| Conservative (26%) | $4476 | $4973 | $5471 | $5968 | $6466 |
| Base Case (39.5%) | $4969 | $5521 | $6074 | $6626 | $7178 |
| Bull Case (53%) | $5461 | $6068 | $6674 | $7281 | $7888 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 1.34 | 1.13 | 0.81 | 2.97 | 0.74 |
| EV/EBIT | 4.57 | 2.82 | 2.13 | 15.15 | 4.71 |
| EV/EBITDA | 3.81 | 2.32 | 1.82 | 13.19 | 4.15 |
| P/FCF | 3.47 | 1.79 | 1.00 | 14.39 | 4.85 |
| P/FFO | 3.18 | 0.89 | 0.65 | 16.82 | 6.02 |
| P/AFFO | 4.93 | 3.95 | 2.30 | 9.83 | 3.13 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.14 | 0.37 | 0.26 | 5.70 | 2.01 |
| Div Yield | 0.85 | 0.84 | 0.64 | 1.00 | 0.13 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.36 | 0.38 | 0.27 | 7.40 | 2.66 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates PAC's fair value at $1828.77 vs the current price of $249.40, implying +633.3% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 64/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $1828.77 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $2077.45 (P10) to $2843.04 (P90), with a median of $2434.05.
PAC's current P/E of 22.0x compares to the industry median of 22.5x (1 peers in the group). This represents a -2.0% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 1.3x over 7 years. Signal: Fair Value.
15 analysts cover PAC with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $260.00 (range: $260.00 — $260.00), implying +4.3% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (5), Hold (8), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 64/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (8), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: PAC trades at the 7220th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (1.3×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that PAC's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.7σ, meaning margins are 0.7 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (48.6%), the model estimates fair value drops by 6190.0% to approximately $404. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.