MODEL VERDICT
Puma Biotechnology, Inc. (PBYI) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $6.83 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $6.82 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $6.61 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.72 | $6.11 | Pending | +12.6% |
| Dec 12, 2025 | MODERATE | 0.72 | $5.86 | Pending | +17.4% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 62 analyst estimates | $9.47 | +38.7% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 43 industry peers | $19.35 | +183.3% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 45 industry peers | $15.79 | +131.2% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 43 industry peers | $20.46 | +199.6% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 43 industry peers | $14.19 | +107.8% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 45 industry peers | $19.90 | +191.4% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 136 industry peers | $40.53 | +493.4% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 136 industry peers | $39.81 | +482.9% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 46 industry peers | $17.19 | +151.7% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 45 industry peers | $21.39 | +213.2% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $16.46 | +141.0% | 100% | 80 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 7× | 9× | 11× (Current) | 13× | 15× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $5 | $6 | $7 | $8 | $10 |
| Conservative (7%) | $5 | $6 | $7 | $9 | $10 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $5 | $6 | $8 | $9 | $10 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $5 | $6 | $8 | $9 | $11 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 74.31 | 9.62 | 4.92 | 208.37 | 116.13 |
| EV/EBIT | 9.88 | 6.47 | 4.23 | 18.93 | 7.92 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.44 | 6.03 | 3.64 | 14.06 | 4.60 |
| P/FCF | 9.88 | 10.16 | 3.85 | 15.37 | 5.82 |
| P/FFO | 9.70 | 6.22 | 3.58 | 19.31 | 8.42 |
| P/AFFO | 25.57 | 6.24 | 3.59 | 66.87 | 35.80 |
| P/B Ratio | 11.24 | 8.80 | 1.63 | 22.51 | 9.31 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.28 | 0.87 | 0.49 | 3.08 | 0.90 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates PBYI's fair value at $16.46 vs the current price of $6.83, implying +141.0% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 80/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $16.46 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $12.75 (P10) to $24.62 (P90), with a median of $17.71.
PBYI's current P/E of 11.0x compares to the industry median of 25.5x (45 peers in the group). This represents a -56.7% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 74.3x over 3 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
19 analysts cover PBYI with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is N/A (range: N/A — N/A), implying N/A upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (8), Hold (7), Sell (4), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 80/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for PBYI.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.