MODEL VERDICT
Rio Tinto Group (RIO)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.54 | $100.58 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.62 | $99.61 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $100.15 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $98.56 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $98.26 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 7 analyst estimates | $85.32 | -15.2% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 7 industry peers | $232.43 | +131.1% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 7 industry peers | $157.00 | +56.1% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 6 industry peers | $95.38 | -5.2% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 7 industry peers | $135.98 | +35.2% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 6 industry peers | $93.48 | -7.1% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 4 industry peers | $76.05 | -24.4% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $193.85 | +92.7% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $181.74 | +80.7% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 7 industry peers | $157.01 | +56.1% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 6 industry peers | $94.56 | -6.0% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $119.71 | +19.0% | 100% | 85 | UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 10× | 12× | 14× (Current) | 16× | 18× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (3%) | $73 | $87 | $102 | $117 | $131 |
| Conservative (5%) | $74 | $89 | $104 | $119 | $134 |
| Base Case (7.7%) | $76 | $91 | $107 | $122 | $137 |
| Bull Case (10%) | $78 | $94 | $109 | $125 | $140 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 9.40 | 9.37 | 5.17 | 12.54 | 3.01 |
| EV/EBIT | 7.00 | 7.37 | 3.66 | 9.16 | 2.11 |
| EV/EBITDA | 4.79 | 4.98 | 3.14 | 5.98 | 1.01 |
| P/FCF | 12.24 | 12.65 | 6.07 | 16.07 | 3.30 |
| P/FFO | 6.33 | 6.13 | 4.16 | 8.49 | 1.60 |
| P/TBV | 2.17 | 2.29 | 1.75 | 2.54 | 0.31 |
| P/AFFO | 11.01 | 13.12 | 5.79 | 14.88 | 3.67 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.02 | 2.15 | 1.66 | 2.36 | 0.27 |
| Div Yield | 0.08 | 0.07 | 0.05 | 0.14 | 0.03 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.13 | 2.09 | 1.72 | 2.75 | 0.34 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates RIO's fair value at $119.71 vs the current price of $100.58, implying +19.0% upside potential. Model verdict: Undervalued. Confidence: 85/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $119.71 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $104.62 (P10) to $133.79 (P90), with a median of $119.00.
RIO's current P/E of 14.2x compares to the industry median of 22.2x (7 peers in the group). This represents a -35.9% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 9.4x over 7 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
31 analysts cover RIO with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $101.75 (range: $83.50 — $120.00), implying +1.2% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (12), Hold (13), Sell (6), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 85/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: RIO trades at the 1430th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (9.4×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that RIO's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.8σ, meaning margins are 0.8 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (33.8%), the model estimates fair value drops by 1510.0% to approximately $116. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.