MODEL VERDICT
Babcock & Wilcox Enterprises, Inc. (BW)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.12 | $14.07 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.12 | $14.50 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.12 | $18.36 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.12 | $18.35 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.12 | $17.44 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $5.85 | -58.4% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 7 industry peers | $10.66 | -24.2% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 7 industry peers | $6.17 | -56.1% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV To Revenue 9 industry peers | $26.83 | +90.7% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $25.59 | +81.9% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $8.47 | -39.8% | 100% | 54 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBIT | 21.52 | 19.82 | 12.76 | 33.69 | 9.51 |
| EV/EBITDA | 24.70 | 24.03 | 13.94 | 36.94 | 9.16 |
| P/FFO | 164.04 | 26.35 | 15.32 | 450.46 | 248.11 |
| Div Yield | 0.05 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 0.12 | 0.05 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.55 | 0.30 | 0.13 | 1.14 | 0.44 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 14 valuation metrics, the model estimates BW's fair value at $8.47 vs the current price of $14.07, implying -39.8% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 54/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $8.47 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $7.75 (P10) to $10.85 (P90), with a median of $9.29.
BW's current P/E of -29.3x compares to the industry median of 42.2x (6 peers in the group). This represents a -169.4% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
7 analysts cover BW with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $12.67 (range: $9.00 — $19.00), implying -10.0% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (1), Hold (5), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 54/100, based on: data completeness (12), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: --10 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for BW.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.