MODEL VERDICT
Camden Property Trust (CPT)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.56 | $104.45 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.27 | $101.75 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $103.40 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.27 | $101.38 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.49 | $101.95 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price / FFO 8 REIT peers | $112.91 | +8.1% | 30% | A | REIT Primary |
| Price / AFFO 5 REIT peers | $80.22 | -23.2% | 20% | A | REIT Primary |
| EV/EBITDA 7 industry peers | $100.57 | -3.7% | 15% | A- | Peer Data |
| Dividend Yield 7 industry peers | $101.45 | -2.9% | 12% | B | Supplementary |
| Price / Book 8 industry peers | $92.37 | -11.6% | 8% | B | Model Driven |
| Industry Median P/E 7 industry peers | $90.11 | -13.7% | 5% | A | Peer Data |
| Forward P/E 7 analyst estimates | $70.40 | -32.6% | 5% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV To Revenue 7 industry peers | $79.82 | -23.6% | 3% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $79.03 | -24.3% | 2% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $126.47 | +21.1% | 100% | 81 | UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 26× | 28× | 30× (Current) | 32× | 34× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (9%) | $101 | $108 | $116 | $124 | $132 |
| Conservative (15%) | $106 | $114 | $122 | $130 | $139 |
| Base Case (23.3%) | $113 | $122 | $131 | $140 | $148 |
| Bull Case (32%) | $121 | $130 | $140 | $149 | $158 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 48.94 | 47.79 | 18.55 | 80.58 | 24.74 |
| EV/EBIT | 45.60 | 50.86 | 26.15 | 60.06 | 13.37 |
| EV/EBITDA | 21.02 | 18.84 | 15.93 | 32.36 | 5.49 |
| P/FCF | 62.28 | 41.07 | 28.29 | 123.52 | 39.49 |
| P/FFO | 16.34 | 16.90 | 9.85 | 25.36 | 5.66 |
| P/TBV | 2.84 | 2.69 | 2.15 | 4.31 | 0.69 |
| P/AFFO | 53.27 | 35.82 | 11.17 | 155.67 | 50.65 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.84 | 2.69 | 2.15 | 4.31 | 0.69 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.04 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 9.59 | 8.52 | 7.04 | 16.07 | 3.06 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates CPT's fair value at $126.47 vs the current price of $104.45, implying +21.1% upside potential. Model verdict: Undervalued. Confidence: 81/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $126.47 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $101.01 (P10) to $158.83 (P90), with a median of $126.18.
CPT's current P/E of 29.5x compares to the industry median of 25.5x (7 peers in the group). This represents a +15.9% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 48.9x over 7 years. Signal: Slight Premium.
41 analysts cover CPT with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $112.48 (range: $107.00 — $120.00), implying +7.7% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (18), Hold (21), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 81/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that CPT's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.8σ, meaning margins are 0.8 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (23.9%), the model estimates fair value drops by 2060.0% to approximately $126. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.