MODEL VERDICT
Electromed, Inc. (ELMD)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 37 analyst estimates | $22.30 | -19.2% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 38 industry peers | $27.78 | +0.6% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 28 industry peers | $31.09 | +12.6% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 39 industry peers | $38.23 | +38.5% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 36 industry peers | $34.50 | +25.0% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 40 industry peers | $43.16 | +56.3% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 16 industry peers | $15.13 | -45.2% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 78 industry peers | $29.84 | +8.1% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 78 industry peers | $28.41 | +2.9% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 29 industry peers | $32.08 | +16.2% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 40 industry peers | $38.45 | +39.3% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $32.38 | +17.3% | 100% | 93 | UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 26× | 29× | 32× (Current) | 35× | 38× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (5%) | $24 | $26 | $29 | $32 | $34 |
| Conservative (8%) | $24 | $27 | $30 | $33 | $35 |
| Base Case (12.8%) | $25 | $28 | $31 | $34 | $37 |
| Bull Case (17%) | $26 | $29 | $32 | $35 | $38 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 37.44 | 37.61 | 20.87 | 50.95 | 10.36 |
| EV/EBIT | 26.27 | 24.72 | 14.89 | 37.37 | 7.44 |
| EV/EBITDA | 22.29 | 22.05 | 13.00 | 33.14 | 6.66 |
| P/FCF | 37.24 | 30.21 | 22.90 | 62.14 | 16.04 |
| P/FFO | 30.24 | 29.15 | 17.66 | 43.72 | 8.81 |
| P/TBV | 3.84 | 2.97 | 2.56 | 6.06 | 1.52 |
| P/AFFO | 43.15 | 46.01 | 21.34 | 65.33 | 14.10 |
| P/B Ratio | 3.76 | 2.90 | 2.52 | 5.88 | 1.48 |
| P/S Ratio | 3.03 | 2.67 | 1.97 | 4.79 | 1.03 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates ELMD's fair value at $32.38 vs the current price of $27.61, implying +17.3% upside potential. Model verdict: Undervalued. Confidence: 93/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $32.38 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $27.22 (P10) to $36.44 (P90), with a median of $31.80.
ELMD's current P/E of 32.1x compares to the industry median of 36.2x (28 peers in the group). This represents a -11.2% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 37.4x over 7 years. Signal: Slightly Cheap.
3 analysts cover ELMD with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $35.50 (range: $35.00 — $36.00), implying +28.6% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (3), Hold (0), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 93/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for ELMD.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.