MODEL VERDICT
Fortress Biotech, Inc. (FBIO) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 69 analyst estimates | $0.22 | -94.0% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV To Revenue 182 industry peers | $26.10 | +613.1% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 184 industry peers | $25.36 | +592.9% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $4.98 | +36.1% | 100% | 58 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/TBV | 1.80 | 2.04 | 0.96 | 2.57 | 0.67 |
| P/B Ratio | 3.74 | 1.53 | 0.90 | 15.38 | 5.72 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.02 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.14 | 1.39 | 0.29 | 5.01 | 1.81 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 8 valuation metrics, the model estimates FBIO's fair value at $4.98 vs the current price of $3.66, implying +36.1% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 58/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $4.98 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $10.09 (P10) to $34.69 (P90), with a median of $22.13.
FBIO's current P/E of -1.4x compares to the industry median of 23.5x (45 peers in the group). This represents a -105.8% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
6 analysts cover FBIO with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is N/A (range: N/A — N/A), implying N/A upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (6), Hold (0), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 58/100, based on: data completeness (6), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for FBIO.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.