MCY trades 10.2% above Wall Street's consensus target of $90.00.
Last 12 months price action with 12-month analyst target path
The base valuation assumes MCY achieves its forward estimates and maintains a stable P/E multiple of 7.9x. This scenario reflects the blended consensus of 7 Wall Street analysts, balancing both positive catalysts and macroeconomic headwinds over the next 12 months.
As of October 2, 2026, Mercury General Corporation (MCY) has a Wall Street consensus price target of $90.00, based on estimates from 7 covering analysts. With the stock currently trading at $100.27, this represents a potential downside of -10.2%. The company has a market capitalization of $5.55B.
Analyst price targets range from a low of $90.00 to a high of $90.00, representing a 0% spread in expectations. The median target of $90.00 aligns closely with the consensus average. The tight target dispersion indicates high conviction among analysts.
The current analyst consensus rating is Hold, with 1 analysts rating the stock as a Buy or Strong Buy,5 rating it Hold, and 1 rating it Sell or Strong Sell. The bearish sentiment suggests caution about the stock at current levels.
From a valuation perspective, MCY trades at a trailing P/E of 10.3x and forward P/E of 7.9x. The forward PEG ratio of 1.03 indicates reasonable valuation for growth. Analysts expect EPS to grow -24.6% over the next year.
Our proprietary valuation model, which blends historical multiples with forward estimates, suggests a base-case price target of $172.03, with bear and bull scenarios of $108.38 and $226.66 respectively. Model confidence stands at 50/100, reflecting moderate uncertainty in projections.
| Company | Market Cap | Price | Target | Upside Potential | Rating | Fwd P/E | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 HCIHCI Group, Inc. | $2.3B | $181.39 | $225.00 | +24.0% | Buy | 9.5x | 14 |
 HRTGHeritage Insurance Holdings, Inc. | $1.0B | $33.83 | $36.50 | +7.9% | Buy | 6.3x | 9 |
 KMPRKemper Corporation | $1.5B | $25.94 | $35.50 | +36.9% | Buy | 12.9x | 12 |
 ERIEErie Indemnity Company | $10.3B | $222.11 | — | — | — | 17.5x | — |
 SIGISelective Insurance Group, Inc. | $5.1B | $84.90 | $98.75 | +16.3% | Hold | 10.5x | 16 |
 PGRThe Progressive Corporation | $123.8B | $210.96 | $222.62 | +5.5% | Hold | 11.7x | 42 |
 ALLThe Allstate Corporation | $57.8B | $224.41 | $270.14 | +20.4% | Hold | 6.3x | 45 |
 TRVThe Travelers Companies, Inc. | $75.4B | $361.64 | $351.11 | -2.9% | Hold | 10.6x | 44 |
 HIGThe Hartford Insurance Group, Inc. | $34.5B | $125.74 | $151.33 | +20.4% | Buy | 9.9x | 42 |
 CINFCincinnati Financial Corporation | $24.9B | $162.15 | $198.00 | +22.1% | Hold | 19.4x | 17 |
Quick answers to the most common questions about buying MCY stock.
MCY's consensus price target is $90, -10.2% below the current price of $100.27. The 7 analysts tracking MCY see downside risk at present valuations.
MCY has a consensus rating of "Hold" based on 7 Wall Street analysts. The rating breakdown is mixed, with 5 Hold ratings making up the largest segment. The consensus 12-month price target of $90 implies -10.2% downside from current levels.
With a forward P/E of 7.8653x, MCY trades at a relatively low valuation. The consensus target of $90 implies -10.2% move, suggesting the market may be pricing in risks.
The most bullish Wall Street analyst has a price target of $90 for MCY, while the most conservative target is $90. The consensus of $90 represents the median expectation. Our quantitative valuation model projects a bull case target of $227 based on optimistic growth and margin assumptions. These targets typically reflect 12-month expectations.
MCY is moderately covered, with 7 analysts providing price targets and ratings. Of these, 1 have Strong Buy ratings, 0 have Buy ratings, 5 recommend Hold, and 1 have Sell or Strong Sell ratings. Higher analyst coverage generally indicates greater institutional interest and more reliable consensus estimates.
The 12-month MCY stock forecast based on 7 Wall Street analysts shows a consensus price target of $90, with estimates ranging from $90 (bear case) to $90 (bull case). The median consensus rating is "Hold". Our proprietary valuation model produces a base case fair value of $172, with bear/bull scenarios of $108/$227.
Our quantitative valuation model calculates MCY's fair value at $172 (base case), with a bear case of $108 and bull case of $227. The model uses discounted cash flow analysis, historical growth rates, and margin mean-reversion to project FY+2 earnings, then applies an appropriate P/E multiple. The model confidence score is 50/100.
MCY trades at a forward P/E ratio of 7.9x based on next-twelve-months earnings estimates compared to a trailing P/E of 10.3x. The lower forward P/E indicates analysts expect earnings growth. A forward P/E is useful for comparing valuations when earnings are expected to change significantly.
Analysts are cautious on MCY, with 1 Sell ratings and a price target of $90 (-10.2% from current price). The "Hold" consensus suggests careful evaluation before buying. This information is for educational purposes only. Always conduct your own research, consider your financial situation, and consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
MCY analyst price targets range from $90 to $90, a 0% tight range reflecting strong analyst consensus. Differences stem from varying assumptions about revenue growth, profit margins, competitive dynamics, and valuation multiples. The $90 consensus represents the middle ground. Our model's $108-$227 range provides an independent fundamental perspective.
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