MODEL VERDICT
Accel Entertainment, Inc. (ACEL)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, competitive benchmarking & quality-adjusted fair value
Accel Entertainment, Inc. is currently trading at a 22.07% discount to its peer-implied fair value.
19 industry peers matched by industry sector due to narrow curated coverage
| Ticker | Company | Market Cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LVS | Las Vegas Sands Corp. | $31.27B | 20.05x | 9.41x |
| FLUT | Flutter Entertainment plc | $18.13B | -60.23x | 10.88x |
| DKNG | DraftKings Inc. | $12.74B | -3172.84x | 50.33x |
| MGM | MGM Resorts International | $12.59B | 64.72x | 33.02x |
| WYNN | Wynn Resorts, Limited | $10.42B | 31.99x | 11.96x |
| LNW | Light & Wonder, Inc. | $8.13B | 26.62x | 11.52x |
| SGHC | Super Group (SGHC) Limited | $7B | 32.02x | 15.44x |
| BYD | Boyd Gaming Corporation | $6.67B | 3.98x | 8.12x |
| CHDN | Churchill Downs Incorporated | $6.2B | 16.72x | 11.38x |
| CZR | Caesars Entertainment, Inc. | $6.15B | -12.48x | 9.04x |
| MTN | Vail Resorts, Inc. | $4.92B | 18.32x | 9.25x |
| HGV | Hilton Grand Vacations Inc. | $4.44B | 61.45x | 13.46x |
4 valuation metrics · peer-median based
| Multiple | Current | Peer Median | vs Peers | Implied Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/EPrice paid for next year's expected earnings. | 18.71x | 18.17x | Premium +2.98% | $12.91 |
| P/EPrice paid for current earnings. | 22.17x | 24.65x | Discount -10.09% | $15.10 |
| EV/EBITDAEnterprise value versus operating cash earnings proxy. | 7.58x | 11.52x | Discount -34.22% | $21.63 |
| P/FCFPrice paid for free cash flow. | 17.47x | 16.98x | Premium +2.9% | $12.18 |
How the model derives the final fair value from peer baselines and quality metrics
Opportunity: The stock is trading at a 18.07% discount to its quality-adjusted fair value of $16.23. To reach its estimated fair value, the stock would need to appreciate by 22.06% from its current price of $13.30.
Quality metrics are stronger than the peer group, justifying a premium.
Quality adjustments are capped at ±15% (up to ±20% for financial services) to prevent runaway premiums. Based on trailing twelve months and multi-year CAGR data where available.
How current multiples rank vs 8 years of the stock’s own history
| Multiple | Current | Historical Median | Percentile | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E6 years of data | 22.17x | 22.71x | 50th | Normal vs history |
| EV/EBITDA8 years of data | 7.58x | 9.76x | 38th | Normal vs history |
| P/FCF6 years of data | 17.47x | 16.26x | 67th | Normal vs history |
Accel Entertainment, Inc. trades within its historical valuation range.
Wall Street target prices — 6 analysts
Model-identified caveats to consider
ACEL looks cheap versus peers using industry peers, with relative upside of 22.1%.
Answers to common questions about ACEL's relative valuation and our methodology.
Accel Entertainment, Inc.'s fair value of $16.24 is the price at which the stock would trade if valued at the same multiples as its 19-company peer group, adjusted for differences in business quality. At $13.30, the stock trades at a +22.11% discount to fair value. This is a reference point, not a price target.
Peers were grouped by industry classification and market capitalization. The 19 companies shown are the closest comparable names with clean, usable financial data.
Accel Entertainment, Inc. has strengths in roic, fcf margin, net debt / ebitda, and challenges in 3y eps growth, and a quality score that justifies a 4.8% premium relative to its peer group. The Quality Adjustment section breaks down each driver.
No. This page provides an automated quantitative comparison of Accel Entertainment, Inc. against its peers. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation. Valuation is only one factor in an investment decision — it does not account for growth catalysts, management quality, regulatory risk, or your personal financial situation.
Look at the Historical Context to see where current multiples sit versus the stock's own history. Review the Risk Factors section for model-identified caveats. Compare the Analyst Consensus to our model output for another perspective. Valuation is only one dimension — growth trajectory, competitive position, and market conditions all matter.
Valuation data is refreshed weekly based on the latest financial filings, market prices, and analyst estimates. Accel Entertainment, Inc.'s fair value, peer multiples, and quality scores will shift over time as new earnings are reported and stock prices change.
Disclaimer: This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Fair value estimates are model outputs under stated assumptions and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision.